The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Condemned
1x $0.23
Forest Leaves
2x $0.27
VariCamo
3x $0.72
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
Picnic
2x $0.58
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
10.0% $6.21
Sky Mandala
10.0% $3.51
Teardown
20.0% $2.81
Earth Mandala
10.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
10.0% $2.27
Silver Quartz
20.0% $1.39
Max Win
$6.21 (+13.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.55 (-53.3%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+26.0%
Cost
$5.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.45
Ask Price EV $2.55 (-53.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.49 (-54.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.90 (-53.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.96 (-54.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.90
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.96
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+13.9%)
Worst Case $1.39 (-74.6%)
Volatility +26.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$0.76
Avg Loss -$3.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.39 (-74.6%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 29m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Condemned
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 27S //TOTAL COST $5.45 //ASK PRICE EV $2.55 //BID PRICE EV $2.49 //ASK PROFIT $-2.90 (-53.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.96 (-54.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +26.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$6.21
+$0.76
+13.9%
$6.18
+$0.73
+13.4%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.51
-$1.94
-35.5%
$3.42
-$2.03
-37.2%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.81
-$2.64
-48.4%
$2.78
-$2.67
-49.0%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.30
-$3.15
-57.7%
$2.24
-$3.21
-58.9%
$0.06
2.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.27
-$3.18
-58.3%
$2.25
-$3.20
-58.7%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.39
-$4.06
-74.6%
$1.33
-$4.12
-75.6%
$0.06
4.1%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.39
-$4.06
-74.6%
$1.31
-$4.14
-76.0%
$0.08
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041735999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:29.443941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.027824,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3869999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:34.838210Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0020867999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.3869999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:56.034464Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045214,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04869199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:16.221223Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04869199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0459096,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c7e5c59dd83044c68fa49590",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
"listing_id": "509613089304149787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Condemned",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:45.126977Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "527627487624310172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:18.390337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "525374890926652063",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:18.390337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "527627435179555100",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:09.487625Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "500605837397524451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:09.487625Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "516368322943257110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:09.487625Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "524249787961811211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:30.144861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.051077Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.86 Acid Fade 20.0% $1.39 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 Teardown 20.0% $0.48 | $2.60 +209.9% | $1.11 +31.7% | 60.0% | +73.0% | $0.84 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 10.0% $6.21 Sky Mandala 10.0% $3.51 Teardown 20.0% $2.81 Earth Mandala 10.0% $2.30 Warm Blooded 10.0% $2.27 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.39 | $6.21 +151.4% | $2.55 +3.1% | 40.0% | +53.3% | $2.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.68 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.42 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.07 Teardown 13.3% $0.49 | $2.93 +196.4% | $1.33 +34.2% | 73.3% | +72.3% | $0.99 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.68 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.42 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.07 Teardown 16.7% $0.49 | $2.93 +208.8% | $1.23 +29.5% | 66.7% | +73.6% | $0.95 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.68 Acid Fade 23.3% $1.42 Silver Quartz 23.3% $1.39 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.07 | $2.93 +162.0% | $1.29 +14.9% | 69.2% | +42.4% | $1.12 | — |