The Ascent Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.17
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Rose Nacre
1x $0.46
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.77
Ocean Topo
1x $0.85
Polished Malachite
2x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
6.0% $10.66
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Tropical Breeze
6.0% $3.67
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.36
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Max Win
$10.66 (+99.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.28 (-38.7%)
Win %
6.0%
Volatility
+38.7%
Cost
$5.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.35
Ask Price EV $3.28 (-38.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.15 (-41.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.07 (-38.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.20 (-41.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+2.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.20
Risk
Win Probability 6.0%
Loss Probability 94.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+99.3%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-71.3%)
Volatility +38.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$5.31
Avg Loss -$2.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-71.3%)
Std Dev $2.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 117h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Factory New
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 20S //TOTAL COST $5.35 //ASK PRICE EV $3.28 //BID PRICE EV $3.15 //ASK PROFIT $-2.07 (-38.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.20 (-41.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +38.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.0%
$10.66
+$5.31
+99.3%
$9.81
+$4.46
+83.4%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$0.89
-16.6%
$4.43
-$0.92
-17.2%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$3.67
-$1.68
-31.4%
$3.64
-$1.71
-32.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.36
-$1.99
-37.2%
$3.34
-$2.01
-37.6%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.66
-$2.69
-50.3%
$2.62
-$2.73
-51.0%
$0.04
1.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$2.71
-50.7%
$2.62
-$2.73
-51.0%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.18
-$3.17
-59.3%
$2.00
-$3.35
-62.6%
$0.18
8.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.57
-$3.78
-70.6%
$1.28
-$4.07
-76.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.56
-$3.79
-70.9%
$1.27
-$4.08
-76.3%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.53
-$3.82
-71.3%
$1.52
-$3.83
-71.6%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3605,
"optimistic_value": 3.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04548050000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:18.126531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:10.616732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1755,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04757960000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:29.111274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:51.732780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.038483500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:31.687833Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c64b554af14648f3031aaf91",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "525375688037289391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.108655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.309873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "508487189340396350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:36.760017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "520872088107001092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.219474Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "520872088106929236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.650964Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.650964Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.235613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.90 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $1.82 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.09 | $4.61 +343.3% | $1.33 +28.3% | 68.0% | +81.9% | $1.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $3.67 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.90 | $4.61 +143.9% | $2.28 +20.5% | 68.0% | +42.6% | $1.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Yeti Camo 2.0% $1.89 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Royal Baroque 2.0% $1.15 Cobalt Paisley 2.0% $1.11 Mint Fan 2.0% $1.09 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.51 +34.5% | 40.0% | +118.6% | $1.12 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $3.67 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.89 | $4.61 +168.0% | $2.28 +32.5% | 72.0% | +42.4% | $1.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  30.0% $6.94 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $2.03 Glockingbird  20.0% $1.62 Royal Guard  30.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +171.2% | $3.22 +25.8% | 30.0% | +95.6% | $2.56 | — |