The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8

Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items

Factory New +29.0%Field-Tested +9.7%Minimal Wear +5.1%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™

Inputs

High Seas

1x $6.23

Eco

1x $6.85

Amberline

3x $2.89

Urban Sovereign

4x $3.57

Galigator

1x $7.79

↓

Possible Outputs

Crane Flight

26.7% $126.41

Nightmare

6.7% $79.93

Eye of Athena

6.7% $26.82

Devourer

6.7% $24.02

Kintsugi

26.7% $23.08

Deathgaze

26.7% $21.34

Max Win

$126.41 (+144.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$54.27 (+5.1%)

Win %

33.3%

Volatility

+88.6%

Cost

$51.63

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $51.63

Ask Price EV $54.27 (+5.1%)

Bid Price EV $48.26 (-6.5%)

Ask Profit $2.64 (+5.1%)

Bid Profit $-3.37 (-6.5%)

Liquidity Gap $6.01 (+11.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.64

Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.37

Risk

Win Probability 33.3%

Loss Probability 66.7%

Best Case $126.41 (+144.8%)

Worst Case $21.34 (-58.7%)

Volatility +88.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%

Avg Win +$65.48

Avg Loss -$28.78

Bottom 5% Outcome $21.34 (-58.7%)

Std Dev $45.73

Avg Norm Float 0.1441

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 146h 44m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

G3SG1 | High Seas

—

Minimal Wear

$6.23 Float: HIDDEN

CZ75-Auto | Eco

—

Minimal Wear

$6.85 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Field-Tested

$2.89 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Field-Tested

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Field-Tested

$3.57 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.69 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.77 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.91 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Minimal Wear

$6.41 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Minimal Wear

$7.79 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 32S //TOTAL COST $51.63 //ASK PRICE EV $54.27 //BID PRICE EV $48.26 //ASK PROFIT $2.64 (+5.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.37 (-6.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +88.6% //

Possible Outputs · 6

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-20|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-20"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.1441,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 124,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 112.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.1441,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 23.082,
      "optimistic_value": 22.9,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 20.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:44.194374Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.1441,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 21.337,
      "optimistic_value": 20.56,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 19.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:53.016761Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.10087,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5af9f375159d",
      "realistic_value": 26.8175,
      "optimistic_value": 26.45,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Eye of Athena",
      "conservative_value": 23.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:52.309972Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5af9f375159d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.1441,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2746c427a1c5",
      "realistic_value": 79.92800000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 76.4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Nightmare",
      "conservative_value": 71.55,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:23.083224Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2746c427a1c5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.11528000000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9d723cee972d",
      "realistic_value": 24.015,
      "optimistic_value": 23,
      "output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Devourer",
      "conservative_value": 19.26,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:35.344825Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9d723cee972d.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_c4a8c40248f54edef7f97b9e",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 6.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-d08b1f9525cb",
      "listing_id": "527627487624338864",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | High Seas",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d08b1f9525cb.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:27.155613Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-25f54c22ac43",
      "listing_id": "493850438106457624",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "CZ75-Auto | Eco",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25f54c22ac43.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:16.643045Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.89,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "492724590627303729",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:51.305733Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "497228024527485521",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:51.305733Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "496102290329909687",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.280726Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "529879287552068532",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.286724Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.77,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "517494388634454286",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.286724Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.91,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "517494388634488234",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.286724Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "528753387757823085",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:48.718851Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.79,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "496102237883502647",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:45.032861Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-20:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Nightmare 6.7% $200.89 Eye of Athena 6.7% $63.77 Kintsugi 26.7% $62.86 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.69 Devourer 6.7% $55.93	$290.04 +185.3%	$131.13 +29.0%	33.3%	+100.2%	$101.67	—
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Nightmare 6.7% $37.40 Eye of Athena 6.7% $13.28 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Devourer 6.7% $11.66 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.23	$63.86 +154.3%	$27.55 +9.7%	33.3%	+90.7%	$25.11	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Nightmare 3.3% $200.89 Eye of Athena 3.3% $63.77 Kintsugi 30.0% $62.86 Deathgaze 30.0% $58.69 Devourer 3.3% $55.93	$290.04 +183.9%	$134.16 +31.3%	33.3%	+102.8%	$102.18	—
The Horizon Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Nightmare 10.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Eye of Athena 10.0% $63.77 Deathgaze 23.3% $60.53 Devourer 10.0% $55.93	$290.04 +185.5%	$128.98 +27.0%	33.3%	+96.4%	$101.59	—
The Horizon Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Nightmare 13.3% $200.89 Eye of Athena 13.3% $63.77 Kintsugi 20.0% $62.86 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Devourer 13.3% $55.93	$290.04 +180.3%	$125.06 +20.9%	33.3%	+91.7%	$103.47	—
The Horizon Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Nightmare 16.7% $200.89 Eye of Athena 16.7% $63.77 Kintsugi 16.7% $62.86 Deathgaze 16.7% $58.69 Devourer 16.7% $55.93	$290.04 +173.8%	$122.03 +15.2%	33.3%	+85.9%	$105.95	—
The Horizon Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Nightmare 20.0% $200.89 Eye of Athena 20.0% $63.77 Kintsugi 13.3% $62.86 Deathgaze 13.3% $58.69 Devourer 20.0% $55.93	$290.04 +167.9%	$119.00 +9.9%	33.3%	+80.3%	$108.26	—
The Horizon Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Nightmare 23.3% $200.89 Eye of Athena 23.3% $63.77 Kintsugi 10.0% $62.86 Deathgaze 10.0% $60.53 Devourer 23.3% $55.93	$290.04 +161.3%	$116.15 +4.6%	33.3%	+74.2%	$111.02	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST	Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Eco 4.0% $25.48 PAW 4.0% $24.39 Powercore 4.0% $21.06 Toy Soldier 4.0% $19.47	$51.27 +159.4%	$25.04 +26.7%	44.0%	+55.2%	$19.77	—
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST	Queen's Gambit 45.0% $843.46 Neon Rider 5.0% $589.35 Fully Tuned 45.0% $484.90 Code Red 5.0% $367.26	$843.46 +62.8%	$645.59 +24.6%	50.0%	+35.2%	$518.15	—