The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Eco
1x $6.85
Toy Soldier
1x $6.99
Urban Sovereign
6x $5.38
Amberline
2x $6.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Nightmare
6.7% $200.89
Kintsugi
26.7% $64.80
Eye of Athena
6.7% $63.77
Deathgaze
26.7% $61.47
Devourer
6.7% $55.93
Max Win
$290.04 (+184.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$132.39 (+30.0%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+99.2%
Cost
$101.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $101.87
Ask Price EV $132.39 (+30.0%)
Bid Price EV $107.33 (+5.4%)
Ask Profit $30.52 (+30.0%)
Bid Profit $5.46 (+5.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $25.06 (+24.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$30.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$5.46
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+184.7%)
Worst Case $55.93 (-45.1%)
Volatility +99.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$170.34
Avg Loss -$39.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $55.93 (-45.1%)
Std Dev $101.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 145h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Eco
—
Minimal Wear
$6.85 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Toy Soldier
—
Minimal Wear
$6.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 33S //TOTAL COST $101.87 //ASK PRICE EV $132.39 //BID PRICE EV $107.33 //ASK PROFIT $30.52 (+30.0%) //BID PROFIT $5.46 (+5.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +99.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$290.04
+$188.17
+184.7%
$229.11
+$127.24
+124.9%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$200.89
+$99.02
+97.2%
$160.05
+$58.18
+57.1%
$40.84
20.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$64.80
-$37.07
-36.4%
$55.11
-$46.76
-45.9%
$9.69
15.0%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$63.77
-$38.10
-37.4%
$51.61
-$50.26
-49.3%
$12.16
19.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$61.47
-$40.40
-39.7%
$55.38
-$46.49
-45.6%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE THIN BID
6.7%
$55.93
-$45.95
-45.1%
$39.93
-$61.94
-60.8%
$16.00
28.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-20|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 64.802,
"optimistic_value": 64.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:50.259027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:30.957315Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5af9f375159d",
"realistic_value": 63.774,
"optimistic_value": 62.99,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Eye of Athena",
"conservative_value": 51.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:28.969689Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5af9f375159d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2746c427a1c5",
"realistic_value": 200.887,
"optimistic_value": 195.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Nightmare",
"conservative_value": 160.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:33.043467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2746c427a1c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9d723cee972d",
"realistic_value": 55.925000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 44.74,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Devourer",
"conservative_value": 39.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:30:08.099963Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9d723cee972d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c4a8c40248f54edef7f97b9e",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.85,
"skin_id": "skin-25f54c22ac43",
"listing_id": "493850438106457624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Eco",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25f54c22ac43.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:59:55.835004Z"
},
{
"price": 6.99,
"skin_id": "skin-069a62a128f1",
"listing_id": "521997191202358230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Toy Soldier",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-069a62a128f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:15.214020Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 6.4,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "519746188259003948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 13.85,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496102124625398987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.413423Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.413423Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.413423Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.413423Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-20:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Nightmare 6.7% $37.40 Eye of Athena 6.7% $13.59 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.72 Devourer 6.7% $11.66 | $63.86 +158.2% | $27.70 +12.0% | 33.3% | +91.7% | $24.73 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Nightmare 6.7% $79.93 Eye of Athena 6.7% $26.82 Devourer 6.7% $25.31 Kintsugi 26.7% $23.08 Deathgaze 26.7% $21.69 | $126.41 +143.5% | $54.45 +4.9% | 33.3% | +87.9% | $51.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Nightmare 10.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Eye of Athena 10.0% $63.77 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Devourer 10.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +182.6% | $129.20 +25.9% | 33.3% | +95.2% | $102.64 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Nightmare 13.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Eye of Athena 13.3% $63.77 Deathgaze 20.0% $60.53 Devourer 13.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +181.2% | $125.82 +22.0% | 33.3% | +91.5% | $103.15 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Nightmare 16.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 16.7% $64.80 Eye of Athena 16.7% $63.77 Deathgaze 16.7% $58.69 Devourer 16.7% $55.93 | $290.04 +174.1% | $122.35 +15.6% | 33.3% | +85.8% | $105.82 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Nightmare 20.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 13.3% $64.80 Eye of Athena 20.0% $63.77 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Devourer 20.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +168.2% | $119.63 +10.6% | 33.3% | +80.0% | $108.15 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Nightmare 23.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 10.0% $64.80 Eye of Athena 23.3% $63.77 Deathgaze 10.0% $58.69 Devourer 23.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +161.3% | $116.16 +4.6% | 33.3% | +74.2% | $111.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Eco 2.0% $25.48 PAW  2.0% $24.39 Powercore  2.0% $21.06 Toy Soldier 2.0% $19.47 | $51.27 +151.3% | $25.55 +25.2% | 42.0% | +55.2% | $20.40 | — |