The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dust 2 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.34
Necro Jr.
3x $1.63
Brass
4x $0.69
Damascus Steel
1x $0.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Dream Glade
10.0% $8.63
Amber Fade
50.0% $6.32
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $4.91
Night Terror
10.0% $3.99
Space Cat
10.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
10.0% $2.68
Max Win
$8.63 (-35.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.51 (-58.8%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+12.7%
Cost
$13.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.36
Ask Price EV $5.51 (-58.8%)
Bid Price EV $4.72 (-64.7%)
Ask Profit $-7.85 (-58.8%)
Bid Profit $-8.64 (-64.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.79 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$7.85
Bid Slippage Buffer -$8.64
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $8.63 (-35.4%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-79.9%)
Volatility +12.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 100.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$7.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-79.9%)
Std Dev $1.70
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Brass
—
Minimal Wear
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 27S //TOTAL COST $13.36 //ASK PRICE EV $5.51 //BID PRICE EV $4.72 //ASK PROFIT $-7.85 (-58.8%) //BID PROFIT $-8.64 (-64.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $8.63 //VOLATILITY +12.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.63
-$4.73
-35.4%
$8.53
-$4.83
-36.2%
$0.10
1.1%
—
NUKE
50.0%
$6.32
-$7.04
-52.7%
$4.79
-$8.57
-64.1%
$1.53
24.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.91
-$8.45
-63.2%
$4.89
-$8.47
-63.4%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.99
-$9.37
-70.2%
$3.97
-$9.39
-70.3%
$0.02
0.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.22
-$10.14
-75.9%
$3.19
-$10.17
-76.1%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.68
-$10.68
-79.9%
$2.67
-$10.69
-80.0%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.5,
"output_float": 0.027996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
"realistic_value": 6.3245000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.23,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 4.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:33.930252Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:52.590628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.987,
"optimistic_value": 3.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:55.720626Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:39.670222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0531924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9135,
"optimistic_value": 4.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:31.881740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:28.693453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c1dd79fe54a13edea82dc517",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:54.900265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "521997935570187702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "490472738292010095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "523123091070407086",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:04.344690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "507361289453116309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.757427Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "496102290328432643",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.757427Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"listing_id": "649221975285796405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:46.317023Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "507359315991156487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.757427Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"listing_id": "743787424996408847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.757427Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-dust-2:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dust 2 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Amber Fade 50.0% $6.32 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.05 Dream Glade 10.0% $0.90 | $6.32 +115.1% | $3.81 +29.6% | 50.0% | +85.9% | $2.94 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dust 2 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 50.0% $6.32 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Dream Glade 10.0% $1.63 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.05 | $6.32 +74.7% | $3.88 +7.2% | 50.0% | +67.6% | $3.62 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dust 2 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Amber Fade 60.0% $6.35 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.61 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $6.35 +89.6% | $4.32 +28.9% | 60.0% | +74.5% | $3.35 | — |