The Fracture Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.30
Ultralight
1x $0.53
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.71
Copperflage
2x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $17.66
Glockingbird
35.0% $11.97
Allure
6.0% $1.62
Monster Call
6.0% $1.56
Brother
6.0% $1.54
Connexion
6.0% $1.28
Max Win
$17.66 (+62.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.81 (-0.4%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+60.5%
Cost
$10.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.85
Ask Price EV $10.81 (-0.4%)
Bid Price EV $10.49 (-3.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.04 (-0.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.36 (-3.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+2.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.04
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.36
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $17.66 (+62.8%)
Worst Case $1.28 (-88.2%)
Volatility +60.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.97
Avg Loss -$9.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.28 (-88.2%)
Std Dev $6.57
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 26m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 04S //TOTAL COST $10.85 //ASK PRICE EV $10.81 //BID PRICE EV $10.49 //ASK PROFIT $-0.04 (-0.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.36 (-3.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $17.66 //VOLATILITY +60.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$17.66
+$6.81
+62.8%
$17.08
+$6.23
+57.4%
$0.58
3.3%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$11.97
+$1.12
+10.3%
$11.70
+$0.85
+7.8%
$0.27
2.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.62
-$9.23
-85.1%
$1.54
-$9.31
-85.8%
$0.08
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.56
-$9.29
-85.6%
$1.53
-$9.32
-85.9%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.54
-$9.31
-85.8%
$1.53
-$9.32
-85.9%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.28
-$9.57
-88.2%
$1.23
-$9.62
-88.7%
$0.05
4.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.28
-$9.57
-88.2%
$1.12
-$9.73
-89.7%
$0.16
12.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06252440000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.970500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:12.875034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6605,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:37.883023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.074656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.2845,
"optimistic_value": 1.26,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.507758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.622,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.607975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.5635000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:36.534425Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.074656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.277,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.711040Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:33.443462Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b380c2a6e5f2de3748c2ef44",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "497228190142349057",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:55.330750Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:55.330750Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:04.329113Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "649222707046030432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.87 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.70 Brother 6.0% $0.70 | $5.19 +66.7% | $3.38 +8.7% | 70.0% | +55.0% | $3.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.87 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Kitbash 8.0% $0.70 Brother 8.0% $0.70 | $5.19 +89.2% | $3.00 +9.4% | 60.0% | +66.6% | $2.74 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.92 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.71 Brother 10.0% $0.70 | $5.20 +111.6% | $2.63 +7.1% | 50.0% | +76.4% | $2.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Tooth Fairy  20.0% $9.69 Vogue  20.0% $8.82 Entombed  20.0% $6.82 | $36.26 +123.3% | $19.57 +20.5% | 40.0% | +84.1% | $16.24 | — |