The Fracture Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
1x $0.15
Mainframe 001
1x $0.27
Ol' Rusty
1x $0.30
Gold Leaf
3x $0.16
Copperflage
2x $0.38
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.20
Glockingbird
35.0% $3.88
Allure
6.0% $0.74
Brother
6.0% $0.72
Monster Call
6.0% $0.71
Kitbash
6.0% $0.71
Max Win
$5.20 (+70.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.40 (+11.0%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+60.1%
Cost
$3.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.06
Ask Price EV $3.40 (+11.0%)
Bid Price EV $3.15 (+2.8%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+11.0%)
Bid Profit $0.09 (+2.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+8.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.09
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $5.20 (+70.1%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-77.0%)
Volatility +60.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.48
Avg Loss -$2.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-77.0%)
Std Dev $1.84
Avg Norm Float 0.1992
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 16h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 48S //TOTAL COST $3.06 //ASK PRICE EV $3.40 //BID PRICE EV $3.15 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+11.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.09 (+2.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $5.20 //VOLATILITY +60.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$5.20
+$2.14
+70.1%
$5.08
+$2.02
+66.0%
$0.12
2.4%
—
WIN
35.0%
$3.88
+$0.82
+26.9%
$3.34
+$0.28
+9.2%
$0.54
14.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$2.32
-75.9%
$0.69
-$2.37
-77.5%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.72
-$2.34
-76.4%
$0.66
-$2.40
-78.4%
$0.06
8.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.35
-76.7%
$0.69
-$2.37
-77.5%
$0.02
3.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.35
-76.8%
$0.64
-$2.42
-79.1%
$0.07
9.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.36
-77.0%
$0.64
-$2.42
-79.1%
$0.06
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1334439,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.884,
"optimistic_value": 3.87,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:50.476861Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1493775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.2044999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 5.18,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:39.707034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.15933600000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:36.629064Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19917,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19917,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:04.003661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.15933600000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:39.616370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19917,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:56.836372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b380c2a6e5f2de3748c2ef44",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.622899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "497228243054639045",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:19.347365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "497228190142349057",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:04.888479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "517494441497414050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:37.902192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:37.902192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:37.902192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "500605889842078859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "499480042827500509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072572238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089305639647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.88 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.72 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.70 | $5.26 +100.2% | $3.03 +15.2% | 60.0% | +70.4% | $2.63 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.83 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.72 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Connexion 10.0% $0.70 | $5.26 +127.9% | $2.63 +13.8% | 50.0% | +81.6% | $2.31 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Tooth Fairy  23.3% $9.69 Vogue  23.3% $8.66 Entombed  23.3% $6.30 | $36.26 +161.2% | $16.63 +19.8% | 30.0% | +93.0% | $13.88 | — |