The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
3x $0.16
Garter-9
2x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
18.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
18.0% $3.67
Metallic Squeezer
2.5% $2.32
Teal Graf
2.5% $2.18
Copperflage
18.0% $1.66
Gold Leaf
18.0% $1.57
Max Win
$4.61 (+151.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.33 (+27.4%)
Win %
41.0%
Volatility
+79.6%
Cost
$1.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.83
Ask Price EV $2.33 (+27.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.04 (+11.5%)
Ask Profit $0.50 (+27.4%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+11.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+15.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.50
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 41.0%
Loss Probability 59.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+151.9%)
Worst Case $0.48 (-73.8%)
Volatility +79.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 23.0%
Avg Win +$2.08
Avg Loss -$0.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.48 (-73.8%)
Std Dev $1.46
Avg Norm Float 0.1142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 11S //TOTAL COST $1.83 //ASK PRICE EV $2.33 //BID PRICE EV $2.04 //ASK PROFIT $0.50 (+27.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+11.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 41.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +79.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.61
+$2.78
+151.9%
$3.81
+$1.98
+108.2%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
18.0%
$3.67
+$1.84
+100.6%
$3.64
+$1.81
+98.9%
$0.03
0.8%
—
WIN
2.5%
$2.32
+$0.49
+27.0%
$2.18
+$0.35
+19.1%
$0.14
6.2%
—
WIN
2.5%
$2.18
+$0.35
+19.0%
$2.13
+$0.30
+16.4%
$0.05
2.2%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.66
-$0.17
-9.1%
$1.27
-$0.56
-30.6%
$0.39
23.7%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.57
-$0.26
-14.1%
$1.28
-$0.55
-30.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$1.22
-$0.61
-33.5%
$1.12
-$0.71
-38.8%
$0.10
8.0%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$1.17
-$0.66
-35.9%
$1.16
-$0.67
-36.6%
$0.01
1.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.48
-$1.35
-73.8%
$0.42
-$1.41
-77.0%
$0.06
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.077656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.48,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:20:59.493916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06852,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06281,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06852,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:25.012161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06852,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.3235,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:58.737078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.1775,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:55.985391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.10278,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:42:04.443708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1142,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.1735,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:13.272435Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b1e40d4723bdfc0f6dfefec5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "490472790736935195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:17.736921Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:51.633224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006707756",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:51.633224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "523123091054746906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "545639912124292754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "518620288313719120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888071660394",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:1+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Metallic Squeezer 2.5% $0.78 Teal Graf 2.5% $0.69 Wurst Hölle 2.5% $0.50 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +322.9% | $1.45 +32.6% | 36.0% | +131.1% | $1.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 5.0% $2.33 Teal Graf 5.0% $2.18 Gold Leaf 16.0% $1.57 Copperflage 16.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +163.4% | $2.24 +28.2% | 42.0% | +66.9% | $1.75 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $2.33 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.18 Gold Leaf 14.0% $1.57 Copperflage 14.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +166.5% | $2.18 +25.9% | 43.0% | +64.6% | $1.73 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $2.33 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.18 Gold Leaf 12.0% $1.57 Copperflage 12.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +169.6% | $2.11 +23.6% | 44.0% | +61.8% | $1.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.33 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.18 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Copperflage 10.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +169.6% | $2.05 +19.8% | 45.0% | +57.8% | $1.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.33 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.18 Gold Leaf 8.0% $1.57 Copperflage 8.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +174.4% | $1.98 +18.1% | 46.0% | +54.3% | $1.68 | — |