The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wash me plz
1x $0.86
Leafhopper
1x $0.18
Garter-9
3x $0.23
Polished Malachite
2x $0.29
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
Mustard Gas
2x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
18.0% $10.66
Pipsqueak
2.5% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
2.5% $5.10
Tropical Breeze
18.0% $3.67
Metallic Squeezer
2.5% $2.33
Teal Graf
2.5% $2.18
Max Win
$10.66 (+117.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.83 (-21.8%)
Win %
23.0%
Volatility
+69.5%
Cost
$4.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.90
Ask Price EV $3.83 (-21.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.55 (-27.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.07 (-21.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.35 (-27.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.35
Risk
Win Probability 23.0%
Loss Probability 77.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+117.6%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-68.7%)
Volatility +69.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 77.0%
Avg Win +$4.74
Avg Loss -$2.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-68.7%)
Std Dev $3.40
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 40S //TOTAL COST $4.90 //ASK PRICE EV $3.83 //BID PRICE EV $3.55 //ASK PROFIT $-1.07 (-21.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.35 (-27.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +69.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$10.66
+$5.76
+117.6%
$9.81
+$4.91
+100.2%
$0.85
8.0%
—
WIN
2.5%
$6.82
+$1.92
+39.3%
$6.71
+$1.81
+36.9%
$0.11
1.7%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$5.10
+$0.20
+4.1%
$4.90
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$3.67
-$1.23
-25.1%
$3.64
-$1.26
-25.7%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.33
-$2.57
-52.4%
$2.18
-$2.72
-55.5%
$0.15
6.6%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.18
-$2.72
-55.6%
$2.13
-$2.77
-56.5%
$0.05
2.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.57
-$3.33
-67.9%
$1.28
-$3.62
-73.9%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.56
-$3.34
-68.2%
$1.27
-$3.63
-74.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.53
-$3.37
-68.7%
$1.52
-$3.38
-69.0%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.047532000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:21:54.516990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.03844500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:31.687833Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.3335,
"optimistic_value": 2.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:52.565156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.1775,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:55.985391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06291000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b1e40d4723bdfc0f6dfefec5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "501731737286075237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:24.196236Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:14.866291Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "499479989896786621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:07.615562Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888071660394",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:07.615562Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033140098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:29.410707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:29.410707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:15.437170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "502857689862568636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:11.456871Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.235613Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375688036608451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.235613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:1+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Metallic Squeezer 2.5% $0.78 Teal Graf 2.5% $0.69 Wurst Hölle 2.5% $0.50 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +322.9% | $1.44 +32.1% | 36.0% | +131.7% | $1.09 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 18.0% $10.66 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 2.5% $2.33 Teal Graf 2.5% $2.18 Gold Leaf 18.0% $1.57 Copperflage 18.0% $1.56 | $10.66 +275.4% | $3.59 +26.5% | 36.0% | +114.4% | $2.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Metallic Squeezer 5.0% $0.77 Teal Graf 5.0% $0.69 Wurst Hölle 5.0% $0.50 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +343.3% | $1.35 +29.4% | 32.0% | +134.1% | $1.04 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $0.78 Teal Graf 7.5% $0.69 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $0.50 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +370.4% | $1.26 +28.2% | 28.0% | +136.7% | $0.98 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $2.34 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.18 Gold Leaf 12.0% $1.57 Copperflage 12.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +171.2% | $2.11 +24.3% | 44.0% | +62.2% | $1.70 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.34 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.18 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Copperflage 10.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +168.0% | $2.05 +19.1% | 45.0% | +57.5% | $1.72 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.33 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.18 Gold Leaf 8.0% $1.57 Copperflage 8.0% $1.56 | $4.61 +168.0% | $1.97 +14.8% | 46.0% | +53.2% | $1.72 | — |