The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
1x $0.14
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
Electric Blue
3x $0.20
Turquoise Pour
2x $0.38
Picnic
3x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
7.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
7.5% $3.50
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+143.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.21 (+26.0%)
Win %
71.0%
Volatility
+44.2%
Cost
$2.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.55
Ask Price EV $3.21 (+26.0%)
Bid Price EV $3.16 (+24.0%)
Ask Profit $0.66 (+26.0%)
Bid Profit $0.61 (+24.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.61
Risk
Win Probability 71.0%
Loss Probability 29.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+143.5%)
Worst Case $2.20 (-13.7%)
Volatility +44.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.07
Avg Loss -$0.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.20 (-13.7%)
Std Dev $1.13
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 7h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 28S //TOTAL COST $2.55 //ASK PRICE EV $3.21 //BID PRICE EV $3.16 //ASK PROFIT $0.66 (+26.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.61 (+24.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 71.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +44.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$6.21
+$3.66
+143.5%
$6.18
+$3.63
+142.4%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.46
+$1.91
+74.9%
$4.43
+$1.88
+73.7%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$3.50
+$0.95
+37.3%
$3.45
+$0.90
+35.3%
$0.05
1.4%
—
WIN
14.0%
$3.37
+$0.82
+32.3%
$3.34
+$0.79
+31.0%
$0.03
1.0%
—
SMALL WIN
14.0%
$2.66
+$0.11
+4.2%
$2.64
+$0.09
+3.5%
$0.02
0.6%
—
SMALL WIN
14.0%
$2.64
+$0.09
+3.5%
$2.62
+$0.07
+2.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$2.27
-$0.28
-11.0%
$2.25
-$0.30
-11.8%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$2.24
-$0.31
-12.2%
$2.23
-$0.32
-12.5%
$0.01
0.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.20
-$0.35
-13.7%
$2.00
-$0.55
-21.6%
$0.20
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:49.785935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0649675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.201,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0649675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5005,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.065967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b16dac1dc2d40c79d7d4a6ea",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.676402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:47.362653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "499479989895797449",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729018177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:21.455962Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:21.455962Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 22.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 2.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 22.5% $3.50 Mint Fan 2.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 2.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 2.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +128.3% | $3.53 +29.7% | 49.0% | +47.5% | $2.72 | — |