The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
4x $0.35
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.40
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
Picnic
3x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
7.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
7.5% $3.49
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+17.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.22 (-39.2%)
Win %
7.5%
Volatility
+21.3%
Cost
$5.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.29
Ask Price EV $3.22 (-39.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.16 (-40.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.07 (-39.2%)
Bid Profit $-2.13 (-40.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.13
Risk
Win Probability 7.5%
Loss Probability 92.5%
Best Case $6.21 (+17.4%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-57.8%)
Volatility +21.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 78.5%
Avg Win +$0.92
Avg Loss -$2.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-57.8%)
Std Dev $1.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 8h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 58S //TOTAL COST $5.29 //ASK PRICE EV $3.22 //BID PRICE EV $3.16 //ASK PROFIT $-2.07 (-39.2%) //BID PROFIT $-2.13 (-40.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 7.5% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +21.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
7.5%
$6.21
+$0.92
+17.4%
$6.18
+$0.89
+16.8%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$0.83
-15.7%
$4.43
-$0.86
-16.3%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.49
-$1.80
-34.0%
$3.45
-$1.84
-34.8%
$0.04
1.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.37
-$1.92
-36.2%
$3.34
-$1.95
-36.9%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$2.64
-49.9%
$2.64
-$2.65
-50.1%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$2.65
-50.0%
$2.62
-$2.67
-50.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.27
-$3.02
-57.1%
$2.25
-$3.04
-57.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.24
-$3.05
-57.7%
$2.23
-$3.06
-57.8%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.23
-$3.06
-57.8%
$2.00
-$3.29
-62.2%
$0.23
10.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:01.169143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0454935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:05.635041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.476109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0454935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.4905,
"optimistic_value": 3.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.211236Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0461934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:47.494612Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b16dac1dc2d40c79d7d4a6ea",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:33.079098Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "499479989896559641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:13.593030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181071325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:13.593030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:24.558548Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:13.593030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:13.593030Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:05.443446Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "523123888072329382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 7.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 14.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 7.5% $3.49 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $2.65 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +150.4% | $3.22 +29.7% | 71.0% | +40.1% | $2.48 | — |