The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Urban Hazard
1x $0.29
Flame Test
2x $0.38
Grip
1x $0.39
Black Sand
1x $0.88
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Shredded
2x $1.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.42
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Moonrise
10.0% $5.40
Lionfish
10.0% $3.74
SWAG-7
10.0% $1.74
Max Win
$33.42 (+170.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.69 (+2.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+91.8%
Cost
$12.36
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.36
Ask Price EV $12.69 (+2.7%)
Bid Price EV $12.08 (-2.3%)
Ask Profit $0.33 (+2.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.28 (-2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.61 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+170.4%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-88.1%)
Volatility +91.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.24
Avg Loss -$9.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-88.1%)
Std Dev $11.35
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Urban Hazard
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 00S //TOTAL COST $12.36 //ASK PRICE EV $12.69 //BID PRICE EV $12.08 //ASK PROFIT $0.33 (+2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.28 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +91.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$33.42
+$21.06
+170.4%
$31.48
+$19.12
+154.7%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
16.7%
$17.42
+$5.06
+40.9%
$16.69
+$4.33
+35.0%
$0.73
4.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$16.98
+$4.62
+37.4%
$16.48
+$4.12
+33.3%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.40
-$6.96
-56.3%
$5.25
-$7.11
-57.5%
$0.15
2.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.74
-$8.62
-69.7%
$3.65
-$8.71
-70.5%
$0.09
2.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.74
-$10.62
-85.9%
$1.73
-$10.63
-86.0%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.50
-$10.86
-87.9%
$1.28
-$11.08
-89.6%
$0.22
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.48
-$10.88
-88.1%
$1.11
-$11.25
-91.0%
$0.37
24.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0697725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.062330100000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.4155,
"optimistic_value": 17.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.733892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.055818,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0604695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.4,
"optimistic_value": 5.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:10:43.248755Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0855876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 1.744,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 1.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:54.788477Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.051166500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.742,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:27.201026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T04:19:30.791389Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 1.5,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.136477Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac19ef16e122f68e8ddb0db6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-87386812a8f9",
"listing_id": "494976390476199246",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Urban Hazard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-87386812a8f9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:23.668116Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-42a677e4f00a",
"listing_id": "503982792725389555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42a677e4f00a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:20.189692Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:44.686176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "524249735517716595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:07.230199Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-42a677e4f00a",
"listing_id": "523123091077526374",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42a677e4f00a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:32.312350Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:28.349533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:28.349533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476633226",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:24.563657Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.58 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +289.8% | $5.34 +30.6% | 50.0% | +119.6% | $4.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +200.8% | $7.02 +32.4% | 70.0% | +93.8% | $5.30 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.34 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +237.7% | $6.13 +29.9% | 60.0% | +105.7% | $4.72 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Moonrise 2.0% $2.25 Lionfish 2.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 2.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +132.7% | $8.69 +26.9% | 60.0% | +69.4% | $6.85 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.34 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +158.0% | $7.79 +26.0% | 53.3% | +79.8% | $6.18 | — |