The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Rebel
2x $0.27
Re.built
1x $0.43
Earth Mandala
4x $1.18
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Warm Blooded
2x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Neoqueen
6.0% $3.17
Banana Cannon
6.0% $1.61
Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $1.58
Sakkaku
6.0% $1.43
Max Win
$26.79 (+72.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.54 (+19.6%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+70.9%
Cost
$15.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.50
Ask Price EV $18.54 (+19.6%)
Bid Price EV $17.44 (+12.5%)
Ask Profit $3.04 (+19.6%)
Bid Profit $1.94 (+12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+7.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.04
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.94
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+72.8%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-91.7%)
Volatility +70.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$10.21
Avg Loss -$13.68
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-91.7%)
Std Dev $10.99
Avg Norm Float 0.0995
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 91h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 36S //TOTAL COST $15.50 //ASK PRICE EV $18.54 //BID PRICE EV $17.44 //ASK PROFIT $3.04 (+19.6%) //BID PROFIT $1.94 (+12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +70.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.79
+$11.29
+72.8%
$26.03
+$10.53
+67.9%
$0.76
2.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$24.63
+$9.13
+58.9%
$22.28
+$6.78
+43.7%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.17
-$12.33
-79.5%
$3.16
-$12.34
-79.6%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.61
-$13.89
-89.6%
$1.58
-$13.92
-89.8%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.58
-$13.92
-89.8%
$1.44
-$14.06
-90.7%
$0.14
8.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.43
-$14.07
-90.8%
$1.42
-$14.08
-90.8%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.29
-$14.21
-91.7%
$1.19
-$14.31
-92.3%
$0.10
7.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 1.286,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.503087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.079584,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.5815,
"optimistic_value": 1.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:02.317865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2676984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.43,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:37.017217Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.059688,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:12.852203Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T10:05:40.697941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7a35ae6fda74e1f10c5d7b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "497228190141914753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:31.164679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518620288314147664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:31.164679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:31.548084Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.106711Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "528753387758077101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.851805Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960537243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.43 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 | $13.94 +87.6% | $9.29 +25.1% | 70.0% | +69.1% | $7.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.43 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 | $13.58 +165.1% | $6.81 +33.1% | 50.0% | +109.3% | $5.12 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $1.52 Sakkaku 16.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 16.0% $1.07 | $13.58 +379.7% | $3.50 +23.5% | 20.0% | +158.5% | $2.83 | — |