The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Re.built
3x $0.43
Sky Mandala
2x $1.58
Earth Mandala
2x $2.30
Warm Blooded
3x $2.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Banana Cannon
6.0% $9.06
Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $5.78
Umbral Rabbit
6.0% $4.30
Neoqueen
6.0% $3.17
Max Win
$26.79 (+24.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.42 (-9.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+45.2%
Cost
$21.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.55
Ask Price EV $19.42 (-9.9%)
Bid Price EV $18.33 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.13 (-9.9%)
Bid Profit $-3.22 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.09 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.13
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.22
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+24.3%)
Worst Case $1.43 (-93.4%)
Volatility +45.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$4.16
Avg Loss -$16.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.43 (-93.4%)
Std Dev $9.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 7m
Oldest Output Price 24h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 39S //TOTAL COST $21.55 //ASK PRICE EV $19.42 //BID PRICE EV $18.33 //ASK PROFIT $-2.13 (-9.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.22 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +45.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.79
+$5.24
+24.3%
$26.03
+$4.48
+20.8%
$0.76
2.8%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$3.08
+14.3%
$22.28
+$0.73
+3.4%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.06
-$12.49
-58.0%
$9.05
-$12.50
-58.0%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.78
-$15.77
-73.2%
$5.70
-$15.85
-73.5%
$0.08
1.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.30
-$17.25
-80.0%
$4.29
-$17.26
-80.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.17
-$18.38
-85.3%
$3.16
-$18.39
-85.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.43
-$20.12
-93.4%
$1.42
-$20.13
-93.4%
$0.01
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:14.019697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055984000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.778,
"optimistic_value": 5.75,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:20.056120Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2505884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.43,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:37.017217Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:12.852203Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.06,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:18.715339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7a35ae6fda74e1f10c5d7b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:31.548084Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "525375688037411647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:11.136484Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "499479989895991957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:11.136484Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "528753387758077101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:39.851805Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.714476Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.43 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 | $13.94 +87.6% | $9.29 +25.1% | 70.0% | +69.1% | $7.43 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 6.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.58 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.43 | $26.79 +72.8% | $18.54 +19.6% | 70.0% | +65.5% | $15.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.43 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 | $13.58 +165.1% | $6.81 +33.1% | 50.0% | +109.3% | $5.12 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $1.52 Sakkaku 16.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 16.0% $1.07 | $13.58 +379.7% | $3.50 +23.5% | 20.0% | +158.5% | $2.83 | — |