The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +32.7%Factory New -9.3%Field-Tested +23.7%Minimal Wear +19.4%Well-Worn +9.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Royal Baroque

2x $1.44

Reef Grief

1x $2.18

Cobalt Paisley

1x $3.65

Blush Pour

2x $1.53

Shredded

2x $1.78

Arsenic Spill

1x $2.18

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

20.0% $38.92

Mulberry

20.0% $33.42

Glitched Paint

20.0% $17.44

Bleeding Edge

20.0% $16.98

Royal Guard

20.0% $13.94

Max Win

$38.92 (+92.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$24.14 (+19.4%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+49.7%

Cost

$20.21

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $20.21

Ask Price EV $24.14 (+19.4%)

Bid Price EV $22.45 (+11.1%)

Ask Profit $3.93 (+19.4%)

Bid Profit $2.24 (+11.1%)

Liquidity Gap $1.69 (+8.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.93

Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.24

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $38.92 (+92.6%)

Worst Case $13.94 (-31.0%)

Volatility +49.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%

Avg Win +$15.96

Avg Loss -$4.09

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.94 (-31.0%)

Std Dev $10.05

Avg Norm Float 0.0932

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 24m

Oldest Output Price 140h 41m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.57 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Factory New

$3.65 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Minimal Wear

$1.53 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Minimal Wear

$1.67 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Factory New

$1.78 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Factory New

$1.79 Float: HIDDEN

AWP | Arsenic Spill

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Factory New

$2.42 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 00S //TOTAL COST $20.21 //ASK PRICE EV $24.14 //BID PRICE EV $22.45 //ASK PROFIT $3.93 (+19.4%) //BID PROFIT $2.24 (+11.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +49.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.06987,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.055896,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 13.86,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:11.791108Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06987,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 33.418,
      "optimistic_value": 33.25,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 31.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.062417200000000006,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 17.435,
      "optimistic_value": 17.4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 16.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:49.480187Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.055896,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 16.977,
      "optimistic_value": 16.83,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 16.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_a0c984f6a46c4bccde9b29a6",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "507361289452175017",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "528753387757393641",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:02.360516Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "619949307134804143",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:10.129895Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "502857524064946924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:37.408772Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.67,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "505109323870506140",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:37.408772Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "499479989896313401",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.435924Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.79,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "500605889841179615",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.435924Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
      "listing_id": "500605889841233903",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
      "name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:12.209500Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "509613089303447967",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:33.171422Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.03 +32.7%	60.0%	+67.3%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.02 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.48	$18.08 +113.9%	$10.45 +23.7%	40.0%	+64.2%	$8.45	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.93 Mulberry 20.0% $5.01 Glitched Paint 20.0% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26	$6.93 +106.3%	$3.66 +9.1%	40.0%	+60.9%	$3.36	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31	$6.94 +126.9%	$4.04 +32.0%	58.3%	+71.9%	$3.06	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.31	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.00 +31.7%	61.7%	+62.4%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.06 +29.2%	56.7%	+74.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31	$6.94 +118.3%	$4.08 +28.3%	55.0%	+77.4%	$3.18	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94	$38.92 +85.9%	$25.67 +22.6%	46.7%	+56.3%	$20.94	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.95 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.48	$18.08 +128.2%	$9.70 +22.5%	35.0%	+61.3%	$7.92	—
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50	$18.08 +122.3%	$9.95 +22.4%	36.7%	+62.3%	$8.13	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88	$38.92 +83.1%	$26.02 +22.4%	48.3%	+57.3%	$21.26	—