The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Reef Grief
1x $2.18
Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
Royal Baroque
2x $3.96
Blush Pour
1x $1.53
Shredded
2x $1.78
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
20.0% $38.92
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.44
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
Royal Guard
20.0% $13.94
Max Win
$38.92 (+46.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.14 (-9.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+37.8%
Cost
$26.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.61
Ask Price EV $24.14 (-9.3%)
Bid Price EV $22.45 (-15.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.47 (-9.3%)
Bid Profit $-4.16 (-15.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.69 (+6.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.16
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+46.3%)
Worst Case $13.94 (-47.6%)
Volatility +37.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$9.56
Avg Loss -$10.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.94 (-47.6%)
Std Dev $10.05
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 140h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$2.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 27S //TOTAL COST $26.61 //ASK PRICE EV $24.14 //BID PRICE EV $22.45 //ASK PROFIT $-2.47 (-9.3%) //BID PROFIT $-4.16 (-15.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +37.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$38.92
+$12.31
+46.3%
$34.38
+$7.77
+29.2%
$4.54
11.7%
—
WIN
20.0%
$33.42
+$6.81
+25.6%
$31.48
+$4.87
+18.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$17.44
-$9.18
-34.5%
$16.69
-$9.92
-37.3%
$0.74
4.3%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$16.98
-$9.63
-36.2%
$16.48
-$10.13
-38.1%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$13.94
-$12.67
-47.6%
$13.24
-$13.37
-50.2%
$0.70
5.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:11.791108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0468464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.435,
"optimistic_value": 17.4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:49.480187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a0c984f6a46c4bccde9b29a6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "528753387757393641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:02.360516Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:10.129895Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:25.333240Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:25.333240Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:37.408772Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.435924Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.435924Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "500605889841233903",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:12.209500Z"
},
{
"price": 2.42,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "509613089303447967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:33.171422Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "556898911189339489",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:33.171422Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +128.4% | $4.03 +32.7% | 60.0% | +67.3% | $3.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.02 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.48 | $18.08 +113.9% | $10.45 +23.7% | 40.0% | +64.2% | $8.45 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +92.6% | $24.14 +19.4% | 40.0% | +49.7% | $20.21 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.93 Mulberry 20.0% $5.01 Glitched Paint 20.0% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26 | $6.93 +106.3% | $3.66 +9.1% | 40.0% | +60.9% | $3.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +126.9% | $4.04 +32.0% | 58.3% | +71.9% | $3.06 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +128.4% | $4.00 +31.7% | 61.7% | +62.4% | $3.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.06 +29.2% | 56.7% | +74.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +118.3% | $4.08 +28.3% | 55.0% | +77.4% | $3.18 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +85.9% | $25.67 +22.6% | 46.7% | +56.3% | $20.94 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.95 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.48 | $18.08 +128.2% | $9.70 +22.5% | 35.0% | +61.3% | $7.92 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 | $18.08 +122.3% | $9.95 +22.4% | 36.7% | +62.3% | $8.13 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 | $38.92 +83.1% | $26.02 +22.4% | 48.3% | +57.3% | $21.26 | — |