The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ultralight
3x $0.13
Runic
2x $0.13
Mainframe 001
1x $0.16
2A2F
2x $0.43
Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
1x $0.55
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
13.3% $9.68
Charged Up
13.3% $7.43
Derailment
13.3% $7.13
Allure
12.0% $0.74
Monster Call
12.0% $0.71
Brother
12.0% $0.71
Max Win
$9.68 (+242.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.65 (+29.1%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+130.2%
Cost
$2.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.83
Ask Price EV $3.65 (+29.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.51 (+24.1%)
Ask Profit $0.82 (+29.1%)
Bid Profit $0.68 (+24.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+5.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.82
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.68
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+242.0%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-76.3%)
Volatility +130.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.25
Avg Loss -$2.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-76.3%)
Std Dev $3.69
Avg Norm Float 0.3373
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 21h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.83 //ASK PRICE EV $3.65 //BID PRICE EV $3.51 //ASK PROFIT $0.82 (+29.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.68 (+24.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +130.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$9.68
+$6.85
+242.0%
$9.66
+$6.83
+241.3%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$7.43
+$4.60
+162.7%
$7.29
+$4.46
+157.6%
$0.14
1.9%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$7.13
+$4.30
+151.9%
$6.40
+$3.57
+126.1%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.74
-$2.09
-74.0%
$0.69
-$2.14
-75.6%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.71
-$2.12
-74.8%
$0.69
-$2.14
-75.6%
$0.02
3.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.71
-$2.12
-74.9%
$0.66
-$2.17
-76.7%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.68
-$2.15
-76.1%
$0.64
-$2.19
-77.4%
$0.04
5.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.67
-$2.16
-76.3%
$0.65
-$2.18
-77.0%
$0.02
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.23614499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.37710899999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.68,
"optimistic_value": 9.68,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:15.564159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.33735,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.4334999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 7.43,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:54.332068Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.26988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.671,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:53.682531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.33735,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.33735,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:04.003661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.26988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6775,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:48:45.472519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.33735,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:33.228779Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9d71063dec5c3613df3dbc77",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "518620341243331480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:59.617303Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "527627540538055388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:16.725533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "497228137695265325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:59.617303Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "496101493259231099",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:59.617303Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "507361289453234605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:16.725533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "520871291122175664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:49.264089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "527627540537800400",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:47.144492Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "506235442367107116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:47.144492Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "492724590627207213",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:39.424179Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840859370755",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:02.197227Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $41.46 Brother 12.0% $11.36 Allure 12.0% $8.88 Monster Call 12.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +172.9% | $27.59 +16.1% | 40.0% | +94.4% | $23.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.46 Charged Up 13.3% $22.60 Allure 12.0% $1.62 Monster Call 12.0% $1.57 Brother 12.0% $1.54 | $64.86 +288.6% | $18.07 +8.2% | 40.0% | +129.3% | $16.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Brother 10.0% $0.72 | $9.68 +182.2% | $4.40 +28.3% | 50.0% | +98.8% | $3.43 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.43 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.72 Brother 8.0% $0.72 | $9.68 +133.8% | $5.14 +24.1% | 60.0% | +78.8% | $4.14 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.72 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +95.2% | $5.87 +18.3% | 70.0% | +60.8% | $4.96 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.43 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Brother 14.0% $0.72 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +282.6% | $2.92 +15.4% | 30.0% | +127.5% | $2.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 6.7% $22.39 Derailment 6.7% $14.74 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Allure 16.0% $1.70 Monster Call 16.0% $1.57 Brother 16.0% $1.44 | $22.39 +454.2% | $4.29 +6.2% | 20.0% | +145.6% | $4.04 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  30.0% $294.44 Tooth Fairy  13.3% $27.46 Vogue  13.3% $20.68 Entombed  13.3% $12.19 | $597.10 +163.4% | $275.51 +21.5% | 60.0% | +105.5% | $226.70 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $68.95 Legion of Anubis  40.0% $59.99 | $663.30 +329.0% | $184.24 +19.2% | 20.0% | +154.9% | $154.61 | — |