The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ol' Rusty
1x $1.19
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Runic
3x $1.62
Mainframe 001
1x $2.79
Late Night Transit
2x $2.87
Green Line
1x $3.06
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
13.3% $64.86
Charged Up
13.3% $63.69
Derailment
13.3% $41.07
Brother
12.0% $11.36
Allure
12.0% $8.88
Monster Call
12.0% $8.24
Max Win
$64.86 (+177.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.54 (+17.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+105.8%
Cost
$23.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.36
Ask Price EV $27.54 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $26.25 (+12.4%)
Ask Profit $4.18 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $2.89 (+12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.29 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.18
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.89
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+177.7%)
Worst Case $5.55 (-76.2%)
Volatility +105.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$33.18
Avg Loss -$15.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.55 (-76.2%)
Std Dev $24.72
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 153h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Factory New
$2.79 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.96 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$3.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 18S //TOTAL COST $23.36 //ASK PRICE EV $27.54 //BID PRICE EV $26.25 //ASK PROFIT $4.18 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $2.89 (+12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +105.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$64.86
+$41.50
+177.7%
$61.61
+$38.25
+163.7%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$63.69
+$40.33
+172.7%
$58.44
+$35.08
+150.2%
$5.25
8.2%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$41.07
+$17.71
+75.8%
$40.19
+$16.83
+72.0%
$0.88
2.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.36
-$12.00
-51.4%
$11.24
-$12.12
-51.9%
$0.12
1.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.88
-$14.48
-62.0%
$8.83
-$14.53
-62.2%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.24
-$15.12
-64.7%
$8.13
-$15.23
-65.2%
$0.11
1.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$7.01
-$16.35
-70.0%
$6.99
-$16.37
-70.1%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$5.55
-$17.81
-76.2%
$5.49
-$17.87
-76.5%
$0.06
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.048838999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.0705,
"optimistic_value": 40.85,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:19.451644Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1255838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.693,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:25.585598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055816000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.01,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:05.560509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.876999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:04.871070Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:44.970318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.055816000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.55,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:40.594740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.3595,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:52.465252Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9d71063dec5c3613df3dbc77",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "643593816554451037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:18.235707Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:28.914502Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:57.697471Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:57.697471Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "496102237882527407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:57.697471Z"
},
{
"price": 2.79,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "507360492277875901",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:45.811262Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:58.843552Z"
},
{
"price": 2.96,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983642533458035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:58.843552Z"
},
{
"price": 3.06,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "523123940969794642",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:02.436430Z"
},
{
"price": 3.24,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "519746241189407696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:08.185000Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.43 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Connexion 12.0% $0.73 Brother 12.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +232.8% | $3.66 +25.8% | 40.0% | +116.2% | $2.91 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.07 Charged Up 13.3% $22.60 Allure 12.0% $1.81 Monster Call 12.0% $1.59 Brother 12.0% $1.54 | $64.86 +299.9% | $18.04 +11.2% | 40.0% | +132.6% | $16.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.43 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Brother 8.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +142.1% | $5.13 +28.3% | 60.0% | +81.6% | $4.00 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.43 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.73 | $9.68 +176.7% | $4.40 +25.6% | 50.0% | +96.7% | $3.50 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.43 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.73 Connexion 6.0% $0.72 | $9.68 +100.5% | $5.87 +21.6% | 70.0% | +62.4% | $4.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.69 Derailment 10.0% $41.07 Brother 14.0% $11.36 Allure 14.0% $8.88 Monster Call 14.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +219.5% | $22.71 +11.9% | 30.0% | +104.9% | $20.30 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 6.7% $22.21 Derailment 6.7% $14.74 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Allure 16.0% $1.70 Monster Call 16.0% $1.59 Brother 16.0% $1.54 | $22.21 +451.2% | $4.29 +6.5% | 20.0% | +144.9% | $4.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $27.46 Vogue  16.7% $20.53 Entombed  16.7% $12.17 | $597.10 +218.9% | $232.91 +24.4% | 50.0% | +127.3% | $187.23 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $68.95 Legion of Anubis  40.0% $58.86 | $663.30 +329.0% | $183.79 +18.9% | 20.0% | +155.1% | $154.61 | — |