The Harlequin Collection ×10
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Picnic
3x $0.16
Coral Paisley
3x $0.23
XoooM
3x $0.34
Banana Leaf
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
25.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
25.0% $3.46
Warm Blooded
25.0% $2.28
Earth Mandala
25.0% $2.28
Max Win
$6.16 (+97.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.55 (+13.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+50.8%
Cost
$3.12
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.12
Ask Price EV $3.55 (+13.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.51 (+12.5%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+13.6%)
Bid Profit $0.39 (+12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.39
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+97.4%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-27.0%)
Volatility +50.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$1.69
Avg Loss -$0.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-27.0%)
Std Dev $1.58
Avg Norm Float 0.0988
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 10h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 42S //TOTAL COST $3.12 //ASK PRICE EV $3.55 //BID PRICE EV $3.51 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+13.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.39 (+12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +50.8% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.16
+$3.04
+97.4%
$6.12
+$3.00
+96.2%
$0.04
0.6%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$3.46
+$0.34
+11.0%
$3.42
+$0.30
+9.6%
$0.04
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$2.28
-$0.84
-26.8%
$2.25
-$0.87
-27.9%
$0.03
1.5%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.28
-$0.84
-27.0%
$2.25
-$0.87
-27.9%
$0.03
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 10,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0642395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06918099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.464,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:11.052988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06918099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:06.255979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0652278,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2775,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:12.721140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96e265c9b593a614bf0e68ec",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "494976443342472234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:12.171140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "526501640650598945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:12.171140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "512990841908302919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:51.452358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:51.452358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:51.452358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "497228243055962837",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "501731842662139601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746241188361932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "501731842662029657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:13.778920Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:51.145218Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:10"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×10 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 25.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 25.0% $1.62 Warm Blooded 25.0% $1.13 Earth Mandala 25.0% $1.13 | $2.93 +119.0% | $1.70 +27.1% | 50.0% | +55.1% | $1.34 | — |