The Harlequin Collection ×10
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
XoooM
4x $0.35
Banana Leaf
2x $0.37
Picnic
3x $0.41
Coral Paisley
1x $1.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
25.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
25.0% $3.48
Warm Blooded
25.0% $2.28
Earth Mandala
25.0% $2.28
Max Win
$6.16 (-3.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.55 (-44.3%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+24.9%
Cost
$6.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.37
Ask Price EV $3.55 (-44.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.51 (-44.9%)
Ask Profit $-2.82 (-44.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.86 (-44.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.82
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.86
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $6.16 (-3.3%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-64.2%)
Volatility +24.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-64.2%)
Std Dev $1.58
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 11h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 44S //TOTAL COST $6.37 //ASK PRICE EV $3.55 //BID PRICE EV $3.51 //ASK PROFIT $-2.82 (-44.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.86 (-44.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +24.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
25.0%
$6.16
-$0.21
-3.3%
$6.12
-$0.25
-3.9%
$0.04
0.6%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$3.48
-$2.89
-45.3%
$3.42
-$2.95
-46.3%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$2.28
-$4.09
-64.2%
$2.25
-$4.12
-64.7%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$2.28
-$4.09
-64.2%
$2.25
-$4.12
-64.7%
$0.03
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 10,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.045461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:44:42.092777Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.046160400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2775,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:52.448208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96e265c9b593a614bf0e68ec",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "514116741797246406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:54.688479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "501731842662139601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:54.688479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "523123940969987242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:11:03.188007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746241188438324",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:54.688479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "501731842662029657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:11:03.188007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "498354142900986799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:42.366658Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:42.366658Z"
},
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "525374890949118943",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:30.321790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:42.366658Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:54.688479Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:10"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×10 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 25.0% $6.16 Sky Mandala 25.0% $3.48 Warm Blooded 25.0% $2.28 Earth Mandala 25.0% $2.28 | $6.16 +113.8% | $3.55 +23.3% | 50.0% | +55.0% | $2.88 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×10 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 25.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 25.0% $1.59 Warm Blooded 25.0% $1.31 Earth Mandala 25.0% $1.09 | $2.93 +99.6% | $1.73 +17.8% | 50.0% | +48.7% | $1.47 | — |