The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
High Beam
1x $0.27
Nitro
2x $0.35
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
Garter-9
1x $0.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $4.61
Converter
7.5% $3.83
Check Engine
7.5% $3.79
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Hand Brake
7.5% $2.92
Brake Light
7.5% $1.73
Max Win
$4.61 (+107.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.56 (+15.3%)
Win %
50.5%
Volatility
+63.9%
Cost
$2.22
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.22
Ask Price EV $2.56 (+15.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.35 (+6.0%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+15.3%)
Bid Profit $0.13 (+6.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+9.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 50.5%
Loss Probability 49.5%
Best Case $4.61 (+107.7%)
Worst Case $0.42 (-80.9%)
Volatility +63.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.0%
Avg Win +$1.64
Avg Loss -$0.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.42 (-80.9%)
Std Dev $1.42
Avg Norm Float 0.1164
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 121h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | High Beam
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 45S //TOTAL COST $2.22 //ASK PRICE EV $2.56 //BID PRICE EV $2.35 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+15.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+6.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.5% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +63.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.61
+$2.39
+107.7%
$3.81
+$1.59
+71.6%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$3.83
+$1.61
+72.7%
$3.61
+$1.39
+62.6%
$0.22
5.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$3.79
+$1.57
+70.8%
$3.65
+$1.43
+64.4%
$0.14
3.7%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$3.67
+$1.45
+65.4%
$3.64
+$1.42
+64.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
WIN
7.5%
$2.92
+$0.70
+31.6%
$2.59
+$0.37
+16.7%
$0.33
11.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$1.73
-$0.49
-22.0%
$1.68
-$0.54
-24.3%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.57
-$0.65
-29.2%
$1.49
-$0.73
-32.9%
$0.08
5.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.44
-$0.78
-35.3%
$1.28
-$0.94
-42.3%
$0.16
10.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.42
-$1.80
-80.9%
$0.41
-$1.81
-81.5%
$0.01
3.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.087285,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0791384,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069828,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:17.047346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06400900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069828,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.4355,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.046552,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.8345,
"optimistic_value": 3.81,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:19.574014Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.11638,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.9219999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.88,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 2.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:44.642612Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0093104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:40.001990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069828,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7915,
"optimistic_value": 3.76,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:20.784399Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8ff973f0257854f1a805f51c",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-8d1c8d592ffb",
"listing_id": "514116741796742586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | High Beam",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d1c8d592ffb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:31:53.773934Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:06.914697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "493850490549509068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:06.914697Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:44.555841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006725396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:44.555841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:46.686245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:17.443212Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "523123091069934802",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:46.686245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:17.443212Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888071660394",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:18.047378Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Check Engine 7.5% $2.01 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.00 Converter 7.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Brake Light 7.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +244.0% | $1.65 +23.0% | 58.0% | +83.7% | $1.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Check Engine 2.5% $2.00 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Brake Light 2.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +294.0% | $1.57 +34.5% | 46.0% | +110.9% | $1.17 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $2.00 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Brake Light 5.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +268.8% | $1.61 +29.0% | 52.0% | +96.9% | $1.25 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Check Engine 10.0% $2.01 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +217.9% | $1.69 +16.2% | 64.0% | +70.8% | $1.45 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Hand Brake 15.0% $2.00 Converter 15.0% $1.91 Brake Light 15.0% $1.73 Check Engine 15.0% $1.65 Wintergreen 8.0% $1.53 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $0.79 | $2.00 +74.2% | $1.32 +14.8% | 68.0% | +37.9% | $1.15 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Converter 12.5% $3.83 Check Engine 12.5% $2.01 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +164.9% | $1.96 +12.9% | 57.5% | +61.5% | $1.74 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo  20.0% $55.48 Fade  20.0% $50.33 Safety Net  20.0% $35.52 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $17.71 Glockingbird  20.0% $11.77 | $55.48 +72.3% | $34.16 +6.1% | 60.0% | +53.6% | $32.19 | — |