The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Gold Leaf
3x $0.18
Copperflage
2x $0.39
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.43
Shredded
1x $0.47
Rose Hex
1x $0.72
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
6.7% $7.17
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.67
Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.26
Glockingbird
40.0% $3.86
Max Win
$15.94 (+257.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.57 (+24.9%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+65.5%
Cost
$4.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.46
Ask Price EV $5.57 (+24.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.09 (+14.1%)
Ask Profit $1.11 (+24.9%)
Bid Profit $0.63 (+14.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+10.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.11
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.63
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+257.4%)
Worst Case $3.86 (-13.4%)
Volatility +65.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$2.25
Avg Loss -$0.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.86 (-13.4%)
Std Dev $2.92
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 146h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 52S //TOTAL COST $4.46 //ASK PRICE EV $5.57 //BID PRICE EV $5.09 //ASK PROFIT $1.11 (+24.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.63 (+14.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +65.5% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$15.94
+$11.48
+257.4%
$14.54
+$10.08
+226.0%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$7.17
+$2.71
+60.9%
$6.21
+$1.75
+39.2%
$0.96
13.4%
—
WIN
6.7%
$5.67
+$1.21
+27.2%
$5.14
+$0.68
+15.2%
$0.53
9.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
40.0%
$5.26
+$0.80
+18.0%
$5.07
+$0.61
+13.7%
$0.19
3.7%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$3.86
-$0.60
-13.4%
$3.34
-$1.12
-25.1%
$0.52
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.1338727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.8645,
"optimistic_value": 3.84,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:55.575002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.14985749999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:01.347684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.14985749999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1338727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.1745,
"optimistic_value": 7.15,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:14.706870Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11988599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.6725,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:05.502756Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f8909ec5b0fce7d178dfd5b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:53.037044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:53.037044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "518620288314692704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "509613089305549503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:37.806861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045074739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072572238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "645845616400983825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:45.471105Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "521997988015949298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:48.151655Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.71 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Glitched Paint 6.7% $16.82 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.77 | $33.42 +122.6% | $16.27 +8.4% | 60.0% | +35.6% | $15.01 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.86 | $15.94 +193.6% | $7.08 +30.4% | 50.0% | +75.5% | $5.43 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.86 | $15.94 +173.9% | $7.58 +30.3% | 40.0% | +74.1% | $5.82 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.29 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.72 | $15.94 +156.3% | $8.09 +30.0% | 46.7% | +71.6% | $6.22 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.29 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.72 | $15.94 +140.8% | $8.53 +28.8% | 53.3% | +69.0% | $6.62 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.72 | $15.94 +215.0% | $6.51 +28.7% | 70.0% | +76.0% | $5.06 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.86 | $15.94 +124.2% | $9.09 +27.8% | 60.0% | +64.2% | $7.11 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.72 | $15.94 +233.5% | $6.01 +25.7% | 65.0% | +72.5% | $4.78 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.65 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.72 | $15.94 +257.4% | $5.00 +12.2% | 55.0% | +49.7% | $4.46 | — |