The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Poplar Thicket
6x $0.71
Copperflage
2x $0.85
Rose Hex
1x $1.80
Arsenic Spill
1x $3.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $33.42
Sheet Lightning
40.0% $17.68
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $16.98
Glitched Paint
6.7% $16.84
Glockingbird
40.0% $11.97
Max Win
$33.42 (+64.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.34 (-19.4%)
Win %
6.7%
Volatility
+26.0%
Cost
$20.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.27
Ask Price EV $16.34 (-19.4%)
Bid Price EV $15.81 (-22.0%)
Ask Profit $-3.93 (-19.4%)
Bid Profit $-4.46 (-22.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.54 (+2.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.93
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.46
Risk
Win Probability 6.7%
Loss Probability 93.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+64.9%)
Worst Case $11.97 (-41.0%)
Volatility +26.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$13.15
Avg Loss -$5.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-41.0%)
Std Dev $5.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 148h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.95 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$3.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 56S //TOTAL COST $20.27 //ASK PRICE EV $16.34 //BID PRICE EV $15.81 //ASK PROFIT $-3.93 (-19.4%) //BID PROFIT $-4.46 (-22.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +26.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$33.42
+$13.15
+64.9%
$31.48
+$11.21
+55.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$17.68
-$2.59
-12.8%
$17.06
-$3.21
-15.8%
$0.62
3.5%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$16.98
-$3.29
-16.2%
$16.48
-$3.79
-18.7%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$16.84
-$3.43
-16.9%
$16.69
-$3.58
-17.7%
$0.15
0.9%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$11.97
-$8.30
-41.0%
$11.68
-$8.59
-42.4%
$0.29
2.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.04685310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.967,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:36.791950Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6815,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:28.231952Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.04685310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.8355,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:46.802144Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f8909ec5b0fce7d178dfd5b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "508487189340831230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.833560Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850490550488376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
},
{
"price": 2.95,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "492723793462505445",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726542974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:06.381219Z"
},
{
"price": 3.23,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "525375688037842243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:07.388185Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.77 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.88 | $15.94 +258.2% | $5.55 +24.7% | 60.0% | +65.3% | $4.45 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.68 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Glitched Paint 6.7% $16.84 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.97 | $33.42 +128.4% | $16.34 +11.7% | 60.0% | +36.1% | $14.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.25 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.83 | $15.94 +173.0% | $7.56 +29.4% | 40.0% | +74.0% | $5.84 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.92 | $15.94 +140.1% | $8.58 +29.1% | 53.3% | +68.3% | $6.64 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.25 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.83 | $15.94 +191.4% | $7.06 +29.0% | 50.0% | +75.2% | $5.47 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.92 | $15.94 +212.0% | $6.58 +28.9% | 70.0% | +74.5% | $5.11 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.92 | $15.94 +234.2% | $6.09 +27.6% | 65.0% | +71.8% | $4.77 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.77 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.88 | $15.94 +154.7% | $7.99 +27.6% | 46.7% | +71.5% | $6.26 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.64 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.25 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.83 | $15.94 +123.6% | $9.07 +27.2% | 60.0% | +64.2% | $7.13 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.67 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.92 | $15.94 +276.0% | $5.09 +20.1% | 55.0% | +51.2% | $4.24 | — |