The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Leafhopper
1x $0.18
Mustard Gas
2x $0.35
Marsh
3x $0.38
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.41
Constructivist
2x $0.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
7.5% $28.83
2A2F
7.5% $18.79
Late Night Transit
7.5% $14.75
Run Run Run
7.5% $11.23
Wintergreen
14.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Max Win
$28.83 (+332.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.19 (+22.9%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+122.4%
Cost
$6.66
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.66
Ask Price EV $8.19 (+22.9%)
Bid Price EV $7.60 (+14.2%)
Ask Profit $1.53 (+22.9%)
Bid Profit $0.94 (+14.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.53
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.94
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+332.8%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-77.0%)
Volatility +122.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$9.28
Avg Loss -$4.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-77.0%)
Std Dev $8.15
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 146h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Constructivist
—
Factory New
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Constructivist
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 01S //TOTAL COST $6.66 //ASK PRICE EV $8.19 //BID PRICE EV $7.60 //ASK PROFIT $1.53 (+22.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.94 (+14.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +122.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$28.83
+$22.17
+332.8%
$26.37
+$19.71
+295.9%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$18.79
+$12.13
+182.2%
$18.05
+$11.39
+171.0%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$14.75
+$8.09
+121.5%
$14.50
+$7.84
+117.7%
$0.25
1.7%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$11.23
+$4.57
+68.6%
$9.36
+$2.70
+40.5%
$1.87
16.6%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.66
+$4.00
+60.1%
$9.81
+$3.15
+47.3%
$0.85
8.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.67
-$2.99
-44.9%
$3.64
-$3.02
-45.3%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.63
-$5.03
-75.5%
$1.28
-$5.38
-80.8%
$0.35
21.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.55
-$5.11
-76.7%
$1.49
-$5.17
-77.6%
$0.06
4.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.53
-$5.13
-77.0%
$1.52
-$5.14
-77.2%
$0.01
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.047566000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:47.820594Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.552,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:29.665676Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0384725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.631,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:06.916143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.060156999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.05222292125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8ede5c7dd32c26373dd57ab9",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:23:01.261547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "523123888072931734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:23.624789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "525375688037451211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:35.438140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:13.320222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:23.624789Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:35.438140Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:35.438140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "511864888985495277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:08:09.198046Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-324ec12298a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072907650",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Constructivist (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Constructivist",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-324ec12298a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:11:00.921537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-324ec12298a8",
"listing_id": "493850490550669816",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Constructivist (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Constructivist",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-324ec12298a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:11:00.921537Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Green Line 7.5% $3.23 Late Night Transit 7.5% $2.99 2A2F 7.5% $2.72 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +195.5% | $1.94 +24.6% | 58.0% | +72.6% | $1.56 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Green Line 7.5% $0.99 Late Night Transit 7.5% $0.89 2A2F 7.5% $0.74 | $4.61 +290.7% | $1.47 +24.6% | 35.5% | +106.5% | $1.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Green Line 5.0% $0.99 Late Night Transit 5.0% $0.89 2A2F 5.0% $0.74 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.49 +33.4% | 37.0% | +116.2% | $1.12 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 2.5% $2.63 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Green Line 2.5% $0.99 Late Night Transit 2.5% $0.86 2A2F 2.5% $0.75 | $4.61 +304.4% | $1.51 +32.8% | 38.5% | +117.9% | $1.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  16.7% $64.86 Derailment  16.7% $45.18 Charged Up  16.7% $22.78 Sheet Lightning  25.0% $17.71 Glockingbird  25.0% $11.77 | $64.86 +162.6% | $29.51 +19.5% | 33.3% | +77.9% | $24.70 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Green Energy  30.0% $109.76 | $597.10 +108.3% | $344.97 +20.3% | 70.0% | +69.5% | $286.64 | — |