The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Cyanospatter
1x $0.37
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.13
Robin's Egg
1x $0.14
Sour Grapes
1x $0.19
Electric Blue
1x $0.20
Turquoise Pour
4x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
3.3% $7.22
Yeti Camo
18.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
18.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
18.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
18.0% $2.23
Max Win
$7.22 (+151.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.10 (+7.9%)
Win %
39.3%
Volatility
+40.2%
Cost
$2.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.87
Ask Price EV $3.10 (+7.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.02 (+5.3%)
Ask Profit $0.23 (+7.9%)
Bid Profit $0.15 (+5.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+2.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 39.3%
Loss Probability 60.7%
Best Case $7.22 (+151.5%)
Worst Case $1.03 (-64.1%)
Volatility +40.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 6.7%
Avg Win +$1.33
Avg Loss -$0.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.65 (-42.5%)
Std Dev $1.15
Avg Norm Float 0.0997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 138h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 40S //TOTAL COST $2.87 //ASK PRICE EV $3.10 //BID PRICE EV $3.02 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+7.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.15 (+5.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 39.3% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +40.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$7.22
+$4.35
+151.5%
$6.84
+$3.97
+138.3%
$0.38
5.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$4.46
+$1.59
+55.4%
$4.43
+$1.56
+54.4%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN
18.0%
$3.37
+$0.50
+17.5%
$3.34
+$0.47
+16.4%
$0.03
1.0%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.66
-$0.21
-7.4%
$2.64
-$0.23
-8.0%
$0.02
0.6%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.64
-$0.23
-8.0%
$2.62
-$0.25
-8.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.23
-$0.64
-22.2%
$2.00
-$0.87
-30.3%
$0.23
10.5%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.65
-$1.22
-42.5%
$1.64
-$1.23
-42.9%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.03
-$1.84
-64.1%
$1.00
-$1.87
-65.2%
$0.03
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:00.191826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06482450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:05.635041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.476109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:41.268442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0079784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:19:02.835408Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7845713c06a82792accdb82e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "505109489448279128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:44.865497Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961224195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:35.233578Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:40.145171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "505109489448125624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:33.079098Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "527627322006965552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:43.506239Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "514116523134032970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:07.924400Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "499479989896559641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:13.593030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:24.558548Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:24.558548Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:24.558548Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.23 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.82 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +247.0% | $2.77 +33.0% | 46.7% | +92.1% | $2.08 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.94 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $1.22 | $38.92 +88.7% | $23.91 +15.9% | 45.0% | +68.1% | $20.63 | — |