The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Mudder
1x $0.98
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.40
Rose Nacre
2x $0.46
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
3.3% $7.22
Yeti Camo
18.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
18.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
18.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
18.0% $2.15
Max Win
$7.22 (+22.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.08 (-47.6%)
Win %
3.3%
Volatility
+19.8%
Cost
$5.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.88
Ask Price EV $3.08 (-47.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.02 (-48.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.80 (-47.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.86 (-48.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.80
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.86
Risk
Win Probability 3.3%
Loss Probability 96.7%
Best Case $7.22 (+22.7%)
Worst Case $1.03 (-82.5%)
Volatility +19.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 78.7%
Avg Win +$1.34
Avg Loss -$2.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.65 (-71.9%)
Std Dev $1.17
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 140h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 34S //TOTAL COST $5.88 //ASK PRICE EV $3.08 //BID PRICE EV $3.02 //ASK PROFIT $-2.80 (-47.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.86 (-48.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 3.3% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +19.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
3.3%
$7.22
+$1.34
+22.7%
$6.84
+$0.96
+16.3%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$4.46
-$1.42
-24.1%
$4.43
-$1.45
-24.7%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.37
-$2.51
-42.6%
$3.34
-$2.54
-43.2%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.66
-$3.22
-54.8%
$2.64
-$3.24
-55.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.64
-$3.24
-55.0%
$2.62
-$3.26
-55.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.15
-$3.73
-63.5%
$2.00
-$3.88
-66.0%
$0.15
6.8%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.65
-$4.23
-71.9%
$1.64
-$4.24
-72.1%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.03
-$4.85
-82.5%
$1.00
-$4.88
-83.0%
$0.03
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:21.830156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04548050000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.654720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:35.711853Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1455,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:14.680265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:22.526627Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0055976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:17.774876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7845713c06a82792accdb82e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "509613089304212715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:06.551328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.414170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.414170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181071325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:10.699085Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.414170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:10.699085Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:49.899944Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "525375635594607271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:49.899944Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:10.699085Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:23.972116Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 6.7% $7.22 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.88 Teardown 6.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +296.6% | $2.44 +34.0% | 70.7% | +73.3% | $1.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.46 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $1.22 | $38.92 +91.4% | $23.70 +16.5% | 45.0% | +69.9% | $20.34 | — |