The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Lush Ruins
1x $2.65
Night
1x $2.80
Blue Tac
2x $0.03
Cobalt Grip
2x $0.03
Plum Netting
1x $0.08
Lime Hex
2x $0.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Silver
5.0% $39.63
Ancient Ritual
5.0% $12.37
Panther Camo
5.0% $11.53
Tall Grass
5.0% $11.28
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.28
Electric Blue
8.9% $0.20
Max Win
$39.63 (+543.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.87 (-37.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+149.0%
Cost
$6.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.16
Ask Price EV $3.87 (-37.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.55 (-42.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.29 (-37.2%)
Bid Profit $-2.61 (-42.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.61
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $39.63 (+543.4%)
Worst Case $0.12 (-98.1%)
Volatility +149.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$12.54
Avg Loss -$6.00
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.12 (-98.1%)
Std Dev $9.18
Avg Norm Float 0.1721
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 152h 13m
Oldest Output Price 152h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Lush Ruins
—
Well-Worn
$2.65 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Night
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Plum Netting
—
Factory New
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 59S //TOTAL COST $6.16 //ASK PRICE EV $3.87 //BID PRICE EV $3.55 //ASK PROFIT $-2.29 (-37.2%) //BID PROFIT $-2.61 (-42.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $39.63 //VOLATILITY +149.0% //
Possible Outputs · 13
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$39.63
+$33.47
+543.4%
$37.62
+$31.46
+510.7%
$2.01
5.1%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$12.37
+$6.21
+100.8%
$10.42
+$4.26
+69.2%
$1.95
15.8%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$11.53
+$5.37
+87.2%
$10.21
+$4.05
+65.7%
$1.32
11.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$11.28
+$5.12
+83.1%
$10.42
+$4.26
+69.2%
$0.86
7.6%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.28
-$5.88
-95.5%
$0.23
-$5.93
-96.3%
$0.05
17.9%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.20
-$5.96
-96.8%
$0.19
-$5.97
-96.9%
$0.01
5.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.18
-$5.98
-97.1%
$0.16
-$6.00
-97.4%
$0.02
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.16
-$6.00
-97.5%
$0.13
-$6.03
-97.9%
$0.03
17.2%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.14
-$6.02
-97.7%
$0.13
-$6.03
-97.9%
$0.01
7.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.13
-$6.03
-97.9%
$0.12
-$6.04
-98.1%
$0.01
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.13
-$6.03
-97.9%
$0.10
-$6.06
-98.4%
$0.03
23.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.12
-$6.04
-98.0%
$0.10
-$6.06
-98.4%
$0.02
19.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.12
-$6.04
-98.1%
$0.10
-$6.06
-98.4%
$0.02
16.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.120484,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.12,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:43:50.930227Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.10327199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.14,
"optimistic_value": 0.14,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:11.913990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.10327199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.1235,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:56.410935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.10327199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.28,
"optimistic_value": 0.28,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:07.593397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.10327199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.13,
"optimistic_value": 0.13,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:56:45.978289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.137696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.18,
"optimistic_value": 0.18,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:49.859270Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.11677154372,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.157,
"optimistic_value": 0.15,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:40.376416Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.10327199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.13,
"optimistic_value": 0.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:22.893358Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.12908999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.2,
"optimistic_value": 0.2,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:35.218174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0137696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c34dd8de2279",
"realistic_value": 39.633,
"optimistic_value": 39.29,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Silver",
"conservative_value": 37.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:57.292435Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c34dd8de2279.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1308112,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c9fe23913c83",
"realistic_value": 12.3705,
"optimistic_value": 12.08,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual",
"conservative_value": 10.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:11.705126Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c9fe23913c83.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.111878,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bb21a91fe207",
"realistic_value": 11.2765,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass",
"conservative_value": 10.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:23.173360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bb21a91fe207.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.08606,
"output_skin_id": "skin-47cc7c043d3d",
"realistic_value": 11.533,
"optimistic_value": 11.4,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Panther Camo",
"conservative_value": 10.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Panther Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:52:49.484803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-47cc7c043d3d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_77d54c6041a20538d4d240e9",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.65,
"skin_id": "skin-a1cba4e82b7b",
"listing_id": "512989991900798831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SG 553 | Lush Ruins",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a1cba4e82b7b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:05.407242Z"
},
{
"price": 2.8,
"skin_id": "skin-2367a9c28a7f",
"listing_id": "516367691465157734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Night",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2367a9c28a7f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:08.353364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "516368541589114190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:57.449269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "516368541589290662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:57.129044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "492724643507549217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:57.129044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "519746241189256640",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:22.923789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4aa647360d8e",
"listing_id": "498354142900369651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Plum Netting (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Plum Netting",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4aa647360d8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:00.190744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "491598743580657926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:41.412319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "528753440604659745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:41.412319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502742711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:59.022952Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-ancient:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 5.0% $53.94 Panther Camo 5.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 5.0% $43.31 Silver 5.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.85 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $53.94 +617.3% | $9.51 +26.5% | 20.0% | +221.3% | $7.52 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | Tall Grass 5.0% $53.94 Panther Camo 5.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 5.0% $43.31 Silver 5.0% $39.63 Sour Grapes 8.9% $0.93 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.85 | $53.94 +557.8% | $9.58 +16.8% | 20.0% | +202.6% | $8.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 7.5% $53.94 Panther Camo 7.5% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 7.5% $43.31 Silver 7.5% $39.63 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.84 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $53.94 +393.5% | $14.01 +28.2% | 30.0% | +166.6% | $10.93 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 10.0% $53.94 Panther Camo 10.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 10.0% $43.31 Silver 10.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.84 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.79 | $53.94 +270.2% | $18.50 +27.0% | 40.0% | +127.1% | $14.57 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins  2.5% $214.37 Carved Jade  2.5% $189.68 Dark Water  2.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past  2.5% $22.38 Mint Fan  18.0% $3.12 Royal Baroque  18.0% $2.64 | $214.37 +1581.3% | $16.41 +28.7% | 10.0% | +372.8% | $12.75 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Ancient Visions  3.3% $340.84 Gold Brick  3.3% $249.02 Ancient Lore  3.3% $154.93 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.38 | $340.84 +720.7% | $48.36 +16.4% | 10.0% | +173.0% | $41.53 | — |