The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Jungle Dashed
2x $3.07
Cobalt Grip
3x $0.03
Lime Hex
2x $0.09
Grey Smoke
1x $0.25
Blue Tac
1x $0.28
Storm Camo
1x $0.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Tall Grass
5.0% $53.94
Panther Camo
5.0% $44.86
Ancient Ritual
5.0% $43.31
Silver
5.0% $39.63
Sour Grapes
8.9% $0.93
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.85
Max Win
$53.94 (+557.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.58 (+16.8%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+220.5%
Cost
$8.20
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $8.20
Ask Price EV $9.58 (+16.8%)
Bid Price EV $7.64 (-6.8%)
Ask Profit $1.38 (+16.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.56 (-6.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.94 (+23.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.56
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $53.94 (+557.8%)
Worst Case $0.37 (-95.5%)
Volatility +220.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$37.24
Avg Loss -$7.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.37 (-95.5%)
Std Dev $18.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 152h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed
—
Field-Tested
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed
—
Minimal Wear
$3.76 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 59S //TOTAL COST $8.20 //ASK PRICE EV $9.58 //BID PRICE EV $7.64 //ASK PROFIT $1.38 (+16.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.56 (-6.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $53.94 //VOLATILITY +220.5% //
Possible Outputs · 13
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$53.94
+$45.74
+557.8%
$47.24
+$39.04
+476.1%
$6.70
12.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$44.86
+$36.66
+447.1%
$37.42
+$29.22
+356.3%
$7.44
16.6%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
5.0%
$43.31
+$35.11
+428.2%
$21.71
+$13.51
+164.8%
$21.60
49.9%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$39.63
+$31.43
+383.3%
$37.62
+$29.42
+358.8%
$2.01
5.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.93
-$7.27
-88.7%
$0.80
-$7.40
-90.2%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.85
-$7.35
-89.6%
$0.77
-$7.43
-90.6%
$0.08
9.8%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.79
-$7.41
-90.4%
$0.72
-$7.48
-91.2%
$0.07
8.5%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.73
-$7.47
-91.1%
$0.66
-$7.54
-92.0%
$0.07
9.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.52
-$7.68
-93.7%
$0.48
-$7.72
-94.1%
$0.04
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.48
-$7.72
-94.1%
$0.43
-$7.77
-94.8%
$0.05
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.47
-$7.73
-94.2%
$0.42
-$7.78
-94.9%
$0.05
11.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.39
-$7.81
-95.2%
$0.35
-$7.85
-95.7%
$0.04
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.37
-$7.83
-95.5%
$0.36
-$7.84
-95.6%
$0.01
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.048845999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.47200000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:12.718385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.52,
"optimistic_value": 0.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.837447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:00.572641Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:52.498139Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.728,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.449802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.055824,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.283947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.04734091518,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.3935,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:30.942331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.05233499999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.622869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0055823999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c34dd8de2279",
"realistic_value": 39.633,
"optimistic_value": 39.29,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Silver",
"conservative_value": 37.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:57.292435Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c34dd8de2279.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0530328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c9fe23913c83",
"realistic_value": 43.311,
"optimistic_value": 42.52,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual",
"conservative_value": 21.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:58.696715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c9fe23913c83.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.045357,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bb21a91fe207",
"realistic_value": 53.9395,
"optimistic_value": 53.67,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass",
"conservative_value": 47.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:58:06.939489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bb21a91fe207.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03489,
"output_skin_id": "skin-47cc7c043d3d",
"realistic_value": 44.86,
"optimistic_value": 44.79,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Panther Camo",
"conservative_value": 37.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:52.335442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-47cc7c043d3d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_77d54c6041a20538d4d240e9",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-18c09d09603b",
"listing_id": "496102290328362011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18c09d09603b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:00.666016Z"
},
{
"price": 3.76,
"skin_id": "skin-18c09d09603b",
"listing_id": "492724590626303037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18c09d09603b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:44.697836Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "516368541589290662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:57.129044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "492724643507549217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:57.129044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "491598743580657926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:41.412319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "528753440604659745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:41.412319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "492723793462158945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:59.022952Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "492724643507629065",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:45.461192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "509612923502750487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:22.923789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "490472843632958835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:26.165562Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-ancient:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 5.0% $53.94 Panther Camo 5.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 5.0% $43.31 Silver 5.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.85 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $53.94 +617.3% | $9.51 +26.5% | 20.0% | +221.3% | $7.52 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 7.5% $53.94 Panther Camo 7.5% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 7.5% $43.31 Silver 7.5% $39.63 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.84 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $53.94 +393.5% | $14.01 +28.2% | 30.0% | +166.6% | $10.93 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 10.0% $53.94 Panther Camo 10.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 10.0% $43.31 Silver 10.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.84 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.79 | $53.94 +270.2% | $18.50 +27.0% | 40.0% | +127.1% | $14.57 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins  2.5% $214.37 Carved Jade  2.5% $189.68 Dark Water  2.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past  2.5% $22.38 Mint Fan  18.0% $3.12 Royal Baroque  18.0% $2.64 | $214.37 +1581.3% | $16.41 +28.7% | 10.0% | +372.8% | $12.75 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Ancient Visions  3.3% $340.84 Gold Brick  3.3% $249.02 Ancient Lore  3.3% $154.93 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.38 | $340.84 +720.7% | $48.36 +16.4% | 10.0% | +173.0% | $41.53 | — |