The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Cell
1x $0.41
Coral Paisley
2x $0.23
XoooM
2x $0.34
Banana Leaf
2x $0.35
Picnic
3x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Yorkshire
2.5% $6.62
Fraise Crane
22.5% $6.16
Alpine Camo
2.5% $5.15
Small Game
2.5% $3.56
Sky Mandala
22.5% $3.46
Zeno
2.5% $3.40
Max Win
$6.62 (-8.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.66 (-49.5%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+22.0%
Cost
$7.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.25
Ask Price EV $3.66 (-49.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.61 (-50.2%)
Ask Profit $-3.59 (-49.5%)
Bid Profit $-3.64 (-50.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+0.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.64
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $6.62 (-8.8%)
Worst Case $2.27 (-68.6%)
Volatility +22.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$3.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.27 (-68.6%)
Std Dev $1.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 6h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 51S //TOTAL COST $7.25 //ASK PRICE EV $3.66 //BID PRICE EV $3.61 //ASK PROFIT $-3.59 (-49.5%) //BID PROFIT $-3.64 (-50.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $6.62 //VOLATILITY +22.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$6.62
-$0.63
-8.8%
$6.41
-$0.84
-11.6%
$0.21
3.1%
—
LOSS
22.5%
$6.16
-$1.09
-15.1%
$6.12
-$1.13
-15.6%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$5.15
-$2.10
-28.9%
$5.08
-$2.17
-29.9%
$0.07
1.4%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$3.56
-$3.69
-50.9%
$3.28
-$3.97
-54.8%
$0.28
7.9%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$3.46
-$3.79
-52.3%
$3.42
-$3.83
-52.8%
$0.04
1.1%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$3.40
-$3.86
-53.2%
$3.31
-$3.94
-54.3%
$0.08
2.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.30
-$4.95
-68.2%
$2.25
-$5.00
-69.0%
$0.05
2.3%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.27
-$4.98
-68.6%
$2.25
-$5.00
-69.0%
$0.02
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.0451555,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.048629,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.4570000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:05.122628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.048629,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:04.360569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.04585020000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:04.869924Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06947,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"realistic_value": 6.6155,
"optimistic_value": 6.57,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"conservative_value": 6.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:00.981992Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.048629,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"realistic_value": 3.5620000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.52,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Small Game",
"conservative_value": 3.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:07.161161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.048629,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"realistic_value": 3.395,
"optimistic_value": 3.36,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:18.972817Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.04723960000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"realistic_value": 5.154,
"optimistic_value": 5.14,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:18.120747Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_77a9e41113cea1397f697735",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "524249787962335551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:52.974372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:02.646967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:02.646967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620341242882920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:23.453213Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "509613142167371127",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:28.704015Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:14.289228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "635711906863070477",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:28.704015Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:14.289228Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:23.453213Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884284747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:14.289228Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 22.5% $6.16 Alpine Camo 2.5% $5.15 Small Game 2.5% $3.56 Sky Mandala 22.5% $3.46 Zeno 2.5% $3.40 Earth Mandala 22.5% $2.30 | $6.16 +109.5% | $3.53 +20.2% | 52.5% | +47.6% | $2.94 | — |