The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.06
Mainframe
1x $0.11
Marsh
2x $0.06
Leafhopper
2x $0.08
Tiger Tear
2x $0.12
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $1.82
Acheron
10.0% $1.03
Facility Negative
10.0% $0.48
Poplar Thicket
12.0% $0.44
Co-Processor
10.0% $0.42
Max Win
$4.61 (+380.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.15 (+20.3%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+141.3%
Cost
$0.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.96
Ask Price EV $1.15 (+20.3%)
Bid Price EV $1.00 (+4.3%)
Ask Profit $0.19 (+20.3%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+4.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+16.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+380.2%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-59.0%)
Volatility +141.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.0%
Avg Win +$1.61
Avg Loss -$0.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-59.0%)
Std Dev $1.36
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 118h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 17S //TOTAL COST $0.96 //ASK PRICE EV $1.15 //BID PRICE EV $1.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.19 (+20.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+4.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +141.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.61
+$3.65
+380.2%
$3.81
+$2.85
+296.9%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$1.82
+$0.86
+89.7%
$1.70
+$0.74
+77.1%
$0.12
6.6%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.03
+$0.07
+7.3%
$0.87
-$0.09
-9.4%
$0.16
15.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.48
-$0.48
-49.6%
$0.38
-$0.58
-60.4%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.44
-$0.52
-54.1%
$0.41
-$0.55
-57.3%
$0.03
6.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.42
-$0.54
-56.3%
$0.39
-$0.57
-59.4%
$0.03
7.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.41
-$0.55
-57.2%
$0.38
-$0.58
-60.4%
$0.03
7.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.40
-$0.56
-58.0%
$0.36
-$0.60
-62.5%
$0.04
10.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.39
-$0.57
-59.0%
$0.38
-$0.58
-60.4%
$0.01
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.149775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.135796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4405,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:45.102530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11981999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:54.653511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.109835,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11981999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.4035,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:53.758956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.16575099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T08:47:23.924515Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.42,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:15.807697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.3935,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:39.005216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:12.043704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7362bb4a3460fa333ced7f50",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "509613089304884871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "502856892583739272",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:17:43.115254Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "505109489449152056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:46.826910Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:46.826910Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:05.893548Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "517494388633861186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:02.575931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:02.575931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:58:50.662373Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Acheron 10.0% $2.43 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +217.9% | $1.84 +27.2% | 64.0% | +69.3% | $1.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acheron 2.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 2.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.43 Co-Processor 2.5% $0.42 | $4.61 +330.8% | $1.44 +34.5% | 36.0% | +134.5% | $1.07 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.41 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.14 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +215.8% | $1.92 +31.3% | 70.0% | +61.5% | $1.46 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Acheron 5.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 5.0% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.44 Co-Processor 5.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +347.6% | $1.35 +30.7% | 32.0% | +135.8% | $1.03 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acheron 7.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 7.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.43 Co-Processor 7.5% $0.42 | $4.61 +375.3% | $1.25 +28.8% | 35.5% | +139.1% | $0.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden  10.0% $55.76 Random Access  10.0% $19.77 Sheet Lightning  35.0% $17.76 Glockingbird  35.0% $11.97 Core Breach  10.0% $8.30 | $55.76 +229.7% | $18.79 +11.1% | 55.0% | +75.8% | $16.91 | — |