The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.21
Mainframe
1x $1.34
Polished Malachite
2x $0.30
Acid Dart
2x $0.36
Mustard Gas
1x $0.80
Marsh
1x $1.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
10.0% $17.37
Wintergreen
12.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Exchanger
10.0% $2.42
Facility Negative
10.0% $2.23
Co-Processor
10.0% $2.14
Max Win
$17.37 (+208.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.69 (-16.7%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+90.2%
Cost
$5.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.63
Ask Price EV $4.69 (-16.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.46 (-20.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.94 (-16.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.17 (-20.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.94
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.17
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $17.37 (+208.5%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-72.8%)
Volatility +90.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 78.0%
Avg Win +$8.08
Avg Loss -$3.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-72.8%)
Std Dev $5.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 144h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 17S //TOTAL COST $5.63 //ASK PRICE EV $4.69 //BID PRICE EV $4.46 //ASK PROFIT $-0.94 (-16.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.17 (-20.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +90.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$17.37
+$11.74
+208.5%
$16.98
+$11.35
+201.6%
$0.39
2.2%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$10.66
+$5.03
+89.3%
$9.81
+$4.18
+74.2%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.67
-$1.96
-34.8%
$3.64
-$1.99
-35.3%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.42
-$3.21
-57.1%
$2.36
-$3.27
-58.1%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.23
-$3.40
-60.4%
$2.16
-$3.47
-61.6%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$3.49
-61.9%
$2.04
-$3.59
-63.8%
$0.10
4.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.56
-$4.07
-72.3%
$1.27
-$4.36
-77.4%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.55
-$4.08
-72.5%
$1.28
-$4.35
-77.3%
$0.27
17.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.53
-$4.10
-72.8%
$1.52
-$4.11
-73.0%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0475728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:55.428682Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.549,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:28.481033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.038478,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:15.234385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.058066799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.143,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:38.232170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:34.504946Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:12:56.105926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7362bb4a3460fa333ced7f50",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "499479989896944769",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:46.306856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:46.306856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:46.306856Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:30.476319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "520872088106929236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:54.866814Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:54.866814Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789045082911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:11:02.967715Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:11:02.967715Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:30.128334Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:11:14.179376Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Acheron 10.0% $2.43 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +217.9% | $1.84 +27.2% | 64.0% | +69.3% | $1.45 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Acheron 10.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 10.0% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.44 Co-Processor 10.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +380.2% | $1.15 +20.3% | 34.0% | +133.7% | $0.96 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acheron 2.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 2.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.43 Co-Processor 2.5% $0.42 | $4.61 +330.8% | $1.44 +34.5% | 36.0% | +134.5% | $1.07 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.41 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.14 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +215.8% | $1.92 +31.3% | 70.0% | +61.5% | $1.46 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Acheron 5.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 5.0% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.44 Co-Processor 5.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +347.6% | $1.35 +30.7% | 32.0% | +135.8% | $1.03 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acheron 7.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 7.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.43 Co-Processor 7.5% $0.42 | $4.61 +375.3% | $1.25 +28.8% | 35.5% | +139.1% | $0.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden  10.0% $55.76 Random Access  10.0% $19.77 Sheet Lightning  35.0% $17.76 Glockingbird  35.0% $11.97 Core Breach  10.0% $8.30 | $55.76 +229.7% | $18.79 +11.1% | 55.0% | +75.8% | $16.91 | — |