The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.32
Necro Jr.
1x $0.41
Foresight
1x $0.81
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Fragments
2x $0.34
Cyberforce
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Emphorosaur-S
10.0% $11.80
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $10.13
Night Terror
10.0% $8.19
Banana Cannon
10.0% $8.10
Umbral Rabbit
10.0% $7.09
Dream Glade
10.0% $5.94
Max Win
$11.80 (+64.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.26 (-12.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+44.2%
Cost
$7.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.18
Ask Price EV $6.26 (-12.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.46 (-23.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.92 (-12.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.72 (-23.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.80 (+11.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.92
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.72
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $11.80 (+64.4%)
Worst Case $2.44 (-66.0%)
Volatility +44.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.37
Avg Loss -$3.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.44 (-66.0%)
Std Dev $3.17
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 154h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.96 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 02S //TOTAL COST $7.18 //ASK PRICE EV $6.26 //BID PRICE EV $5.46 //ASK PROFIT $-0.92 (-12.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.72 (-23.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $11.80 //VOLATILITY +44.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$11.80
+$4.62
+64.4%
$10.16
+$2.98
+41.5%
$1.64
13.9%
—
WIN
10.0%
$10.13
+$2.95
+41.0%
$8.42
+$1.24
+17.3%
$1.71
16.8%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$8.19
+$1.01
+14.0%
$7.88
+$0.70
+9.7%
$0.31
3.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.10
+$0.92
+12.7%
$6.70
-$0.48
-6.7%
$1.40
17.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.09
-$0.09
-1.2%
$6.18
-$1.00
-13.9%
$0.91
12.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$5.94
-$1.24
-17.3%
$5.08
-$2.10
-29.2%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.32
-$3.86
-53.8%
$3.08
-$4.10
-57.1%
$0.24
7.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.99
-$4.20
-58.4%
$2.62
-$4.56
-63.5%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.65
-$4.53
-63.0%
$2.41
-$4.77
-66.4%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.44
-$4.74
-66.0%
$2.11
-$5.07
-70.6%
$0.33
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:50:29.898871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 7.0925,
"optimistic_value": 7.04,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:45.756197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05594400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 8.1885,
"optimistic_value": 8.08,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:07.442720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2505594,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.361727Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04685310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.095,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.810316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05314680000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.034965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.4435000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.44,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:17.464692Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6ff514fe87a00b85aa84dff4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "521997191218606146",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:04.612313Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "518620122755714344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:04.612313Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228190142503425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:04.605255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "503983642532457235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:45.655864Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:53.949892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:59.778830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:36.223788Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "527627540538513956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:10.374086Z"
},
{
"price": 0.96,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "509613142168533747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:50.806539Z"
},
{
"price": 1.46,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "490472843633931555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:56.846797Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-community-32:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.41 | $4.12 +113.7% | $2.35 +21.8% | 50.0% | +52.6% | $1.93 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $11.80 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $10.13 Night Terror 10.0% $8.19 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $7.09 Neoqueen 10.0% $3.32 Space Cat 10.0% $2.99 | $11.80 +158.3% | $5.16 +13.0% | 40.0% | +65.6% | $4.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 12.0% $1.40 | $4.12 +115.9% | $2.36 +23.4% | 52.0% | +52.5% | $1.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Revolution Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.41 | $4.12 +111.5% | $2.35 +20.4% | 48.0% | +52.6% | $1.95 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 16.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 16.0% $1.41 | $4.12 +106.2% | $2.39 +19.4% | 56.0% | +48.4% | $2.00 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Revolution Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 14.0% $10.13 Night Terror 14.0% $8.19 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $7.09 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.32 Space Cat 14.0% $2.99 | $10.13 +153.8% | $4.65 +16.6% | 40.0% | +65.4% | $3.99 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Revolution Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 4.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 4.0% $1.40 | $4.12 +106.2% | $2.30 +14.8% | 44.0% | +53.9% | $2.00 | — |