The Inferno Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Sand Dune
1x $2.92
Walnut
1x $4.00
Grey Smoke
2x $0.21
Cobalt Grip
2x $0.25
Blue Tac
2x $0.28
Night Camo
1x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Tornado
10.0% $92.65
Gunsmoke
10.0% $7.46
Sour Grapes
8.9% $0.90
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.87
Electric Blue
8.9% $0.78
Naval Shred Camo
8.9% $0.70
Max Win
$92.65 (+806.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.49 (+2.6%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+268.7%
Cost
$10.22
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $10.22
Ask Price EV $10.49 (+2.6%)
Bid Price EV $8.79 (-13.9%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+2.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.43 (-13.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.70 (+16.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.43
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $92.65 (+806.5%)
Worst Case $0.36 (-96.5%)
Volatility +268.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$82.43
Avg Loss -$8.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.36 (-96.5%)
Std Dev $27.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 141h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Sand Dune
—
Well-Worn
$2.92 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Walnut
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Factory New
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Night Camo
—
Factory New
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 40S //TOTAL COST $10.22 //ASK PRICE EV $10.49 //BID PRICE EV $8.79 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+2.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.43 (-13.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $92.65 //VOLATILITY +268.7% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$92.65
+$82.43
+806.5%
$76.76
+$66.54
+651.1%
$15.89
17.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.46
-$2.76
-27.0%
$6.78
-$3.44
-33.7%
$0.68
9.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.90
-$9.32
-91.2%
$0.78
-$9.44
-92.4%
$0.12
13.4%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.87
-$9.35
-91.5%
$0.76
-$9.46
-92.6%
$0.11
12.6%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.78
-$9.44
-92.4%
$0.72
-$9.50
-93.0%
$0.06
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.70
-$9.52
-93.1%
$0.66
-$9.56
-93.5%
$0.04
6.2%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.51
-$9.71
-95.0%
$0.48
-$9.74
-95.3%
$0.03
5.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.48
-$9.74
-95.3%
$0.43
-$9.79
-95.8%
$0.05
9.9%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.43
-$9.79
-95.8%
$0.42
-$9.80
-95.9%
$0.01
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.37
-$9.85
-96.4%
$0.36
-$9.86
-96.5%
$0.01
2.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.36
-$9.86
-96.5%
$0.35
-$9.87
-96.6%
$0.01
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11174819999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f6fd04e5efe",
"realistic_value": 92.646,
"optimistic_value": 90,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tornado",
"conservative_value": 76.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Tornado (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:56.764908Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f6fd04e5efe.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11174819999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"realistic_value": 7.461,
"optimistic_value": 7.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"conservative_value": 6.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:41.260682Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:32.420403Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.507,
"optimistic_value": 0.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:26.479826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.477,
"optimistic_value": 0.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:58.613463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.87,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:10.636171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:18.834067Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.05594400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.901,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:04.978344Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.04744267983000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:48.413070Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.36,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:00.489809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:25:31.081270Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6eb71c53c71e32599d516847",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.92,
"skin_id": "skin-02ab67711447",
"listing_id": "517493591335111942",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Sand Dune",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-02ab67711447.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:19.423977Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-bfce85fc2e15",
"listing_id": "529879235107811232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Walnut (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Walnut",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bfce85fc2e15.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:02.226729Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502747319",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:05.968304Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "517494388633540282",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.685496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "509612923502750487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:29.187707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "503983589618123095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:05.968304Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "501731789729144465",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:29.187707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "518619491433645808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.685496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-aa996ba531f1",
"listing_id": "524249622293717355",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Night Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa996ba531f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:56.663913Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "517493591338456738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:55.330005Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tornado 15.0% $92.65 Gunsmoke 15.0% $7.46 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.26 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.19 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.17 Turquoise Pour 7.8% $0.16 | $92.65 +684.5% | $15.13 +28.1% | 15.0% | +265.0% | $11.81 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass  10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy  10.0% $35.31 Yeti Camo  16.0% $4.46 Mint Fan  16.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley  16.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque  16.0% $2.64 | $181.74 +896.4% | $24.15 +32.4% | 20.0% | +288.8% | $18.24 | — |