The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wildwood
1x $0.28
Cold Cell
3x $0.40
Tiger Stencil
2x $1.33
XoooM
3x $0.36
Banana Leaf
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Yorkshire
15.0% $6.69
Fraise Crane
10.0% $6.16
Alpine Camo
15.0% $5.12
Small Game
15.0% $3.58
Zeno
15.0% $3.54
Sky Mandala
10.0% $3.46
Max Win
$6.69 (+1.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.26 (-35.2%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+23.3%
Cost
$6.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.57
Ask Price EV $4.26 (-35.2%)
Bid Price EV $4.06 (-38.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.31 (-35.2%)
Bid Profit $-2.51 (-38.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.51
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $6.69 (+1.9%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-65.3%)
Volatility +23.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$0.12
Avg Loss -$2.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-65.3%)
Std Dev $1.53
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 10h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Wildwood
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 35S //TOTAL COST $6.57 //ASK PRICE EV $4.26 //BID PRICE EV $4.06 //ASK PROFIT $-2.31 (-35.2%) //BID PROFIT $-2.51 (-38.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $6.69 //VOLATILITY +23.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$6.69
+$0.12
+1.9%
$6.12
-$0.45
-6.8%
$0.57
8.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$6.16
-$0.41
-6.3%
$6.12
-$0.45
-6.8%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$5.12
-$1.45
-22.1%
$5.03
-$1.54
-23.4%
$0.09
1.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$3.58
-$2.99
-45.5%
$3.29
-$3.28
-49.9%
$0.29
8.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$3.54
-$3.03
-46.1%
$3.27
-$3.30
-50.2%
$0.27
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.46
-$3.11
-47.3%
$3.42
-$3.15
-47.9%
$0.04
1.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$4.29
-65.2%
$2.25
-$4.32
-65.8%
$0.03
1.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$4.29
-65.3%
$2.25
-$4.32
-65.8%
$0.03
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"realistic_value": 6.6935,
"optimistic_value": 6.69,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:24.058907Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"realistic_value": 3.5835,
"optimistic_value": 3.58,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Small Game",
"conservative_value": 3.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:27.487750Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"realistic_value": 3.5439999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"conservative_value": 3.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:53.414865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0473688,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"realistic_value": 5.12,
"optimistic_value": 5.12,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"conservative_value": 5.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:02.318105Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045279,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.464,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:11.052988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:40.184006Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045975600000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2775,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:12.721140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_69fb016e452f27d23875d5f0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-3c001e4d2e36",
"listing_id": "516368322945843962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Wildwood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Wildwood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c001e4d2e36.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:06.317007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "494976443342459850",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:02.386849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "499479989895985801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:02.386849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "509613036859523919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:02.386849Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "517494222851447242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:39.731279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "491598638254266758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:39.731279Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "501731842662139601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746241188361932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "501731842662029657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:13.778920Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 10.0% $6.16 Alpine Camo 15.0% $5.12 Small Game 15.0% $3.58 Zeno 15.0% $3.54 Sky Mandala 10.0% $3.46 Warm Blooded 10.0% $2.28 | $6.16 +101.2% | $3.49 +14.0% | 65.0% | +36.7% | $3.06 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.62 Alpine Camo 15.0% $1.49 Zeno 15.0% $1.19 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.13 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.13 | $2.93 +142.5% | $1.35 +12.0% | 35.0% | +43.2% | $1.21 | — |