The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Picnic
4x $0.16
Banana Leaf
2x $0.17
Coral Paisley
1x $0.28
Urban DDPAT
1x $0.14
Carbon Fiber
1x $0.28
Metallic DDPAT
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.21
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.51
Earth Mandala
17.5% $2.30
Warm Blooded
17.5% $2.28
Urban Rubble
15.0% $1.87
Amber Fade
15.0% $1.32
Max Win
$6.21 (+111.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.98 (+1.5%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+55.2%
Cost
$2.94
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.94
Ask Price EV $2.98 (+1.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.92 (-0.6%)
Ask Profit $0.04 (+1.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.02 (-0.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+111.2%)
Worst Case $1.32 (-55.0%)
Volatility +55.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.92
Avg Loss -$0.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.32 (-55.0%)
Std Dev $1.62
Avg Norm Float 0.1000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 9h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Metallic DDPAT
—
Factory New
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 35S //TOTAL COST $2.94 //ASK PRICE EV $2.98 //BID PRICE EV $2.92 //ASK PROFIT $0.04 (+1.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.02 (-0.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +55.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
17.5%
$6.21
+$3.27
+111.2%
$6.18
+$3.24
+110.2%
$0.03
0.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$3.51
+$0.57
+19.5%
$3.42
+$0.48
+16.3%
$0.09
2.7%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$2.30
-$0.64
-21.6%
$2.25
-$0.69
-23.5%
$0.05
2.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$2.28
-$0.66
-22.4%
$2.25
-$0.69
-23.5%
$0.03
1.3%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$1.87
-$1.07
-36.4%
$1.81
-$1.13
-38.4%
$0.06
3.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.32
-$1.62
-55.0%
$1.23
-$1.71
-58.2%
$0.09
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.064987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.856393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0659868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612659d976ea",
"realistic_value": 1.8705,
"optimistic_value": 1.86,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:54:07.528996Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612659d976ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.039992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c43661e243fc",
"realistic_value": 1.3225,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:20.423995Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c43661e243fc.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_665fc4dfed1e30b248a02ef9",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "503983589618556751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:49.792978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:35.864831Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "521997988015820490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:49.792978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "510738823411175518",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.635546Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "519746022668955032",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:49.792978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "524249787961811211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:30.144861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-044cebc994db",
"listing_id": "505109323868547560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-044cebc994db.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:38.490018Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7120cef6b037",
"listing_id": "502857689862588652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7120cef6b037.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:12.537383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-621090a2f1ba",
"listing_id": "505109489447736536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Metallic DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-621090a2f1ba.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:00.297099Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7+collection-set-train:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.60 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 17.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 17.5% $1.05 Amber Fade 15.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 15.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +138.9% | $1.28 +17.8% | 52.5% | +67.7% | $1.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 20.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 20.0% $1.05 Amber Fade 10.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 10.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +138.9% | $1.40 +28.5% | 60.0% | +65.7% | $1.09 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  35.0% $2.15 Red Quartz  30.0% $0.57 | $9.85 +166.2% | $4.37 +18.1% | 35.0% | +110.0% | $3.70 | — |