The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Picnic
2x $0.06
Coral Paisley
2x $0.07
XoooM
1x $0.08
Calligrafaux
2x $0.08
Ash Wood
1x $0.12
Urban DDPAT
2x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
17.5% $2.60
Sky Mandala
17.5% $1.77
Earth Mandala
17.5% $1.20
Warm Blooded
17.5% $1.05
Amber Fade
15.0% $0.47
Urban Rubble
15.0% $0.46
Max Win
$2.60 (+145.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.30 (+22.5%)
Win %
52.5%
Volatility
+70.4%
Cost
$1.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.06
Ask Price EV $1.30 (+22.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.17 (+10.3%)
Ask Profit $0.24 (+22.5%)
Bid Profit $0.11 (+10.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 52.5%
Loss Probability 47.5%
Best Case $2.60 (+145.6%)
Worst Case $0.46 (-56.6%)
Volatility +70.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$0.80
Avg Loss -$0.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.46 (-56.6%)
Std Dev $0.75
Avg Norm Float 0.2115
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 122h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Ash Wood
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 03S //TOTAL COST $1.06 //ASK PRICE EV $1.30 //BID PRICE EV $1.17 //ASK PROFIT $0.24 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.11 (+10.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.5% //BEST CASE $2.60 //VOLATILITY +70.4% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
17.5%
$2.60
+$1.54
+145.6%
$2.37
+$1.31
+123.6%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN
17.5%
$1.77
+$0.71
+66.8%
$1.56
+$0.50
+47.2%
$0.21
11.8%
—
PAPER WIN
17.5%
$1.20
+$0.14
+13.0%
$1.01
-$0.05
-4.7%
$0.19
15.7%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$1.05
-$0.01
-0.9%
$1.01
-$0.05
-4.7%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.47
-$0.59
-55.3%
$0.42
-$0.64
-60.4%
$0.05
11.4%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.46
-$0.60
-56.6%
$0.43
-$0.63
-59.4%
$0.03
6.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.137475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:25.041413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.7685,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:49.130885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.322143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.13959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.308300Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612659d976ea",
"realistic_value": 0.46,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:54.671884Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612659d976ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08460000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c43661e243fc",
"realistic_value": 0.47400000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:30:44.164693Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c43661e243fc.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_665fc4dfed1e30b248a02ef9",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "500605837398752843",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:23.446745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "503983589619433351",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:02.432289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "507361237008603373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:23.707692Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613089304167139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:02.432289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "511864888985117277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:42.088138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "645845544486527565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:42.088138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "520872088106770728",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:50.077182Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6764c2686f68",
"listing_id": "516368436281286782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Ash Wood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Ash Wood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6764c2686f68.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:24.821949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-044cebc994db",
"listing_id": "505109323868547560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-044cebc994db.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:59.024830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-044cebc994db",
"listing_id": "500605092739514531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-044cebc994db.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:59.024830Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7+collection-set-train:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.21 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.47 Earth Mandala 17.5% $2.31 Warm Blooded 17.5% $2.27 Urban Rubble 15.0% $1.87 Amber Fade 15.0% $1.46 | $6.21 +117.1% | $3.00 +4.7% | 35.0% | +56.0% | $2.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.60 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.86 Earth Mandala 22.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 22.5% $1.05 Amber Fade 5.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 5.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +122.5% | $1.56 +33.1% | 67.5% | +58.8% | $1.17 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.77 Earth Mandala 20.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 20.0% $1.05 Amber Fade 10.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 10.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +143.3% | $1.42 +32.5% | 60.0% | +67.6% | $1.07 | — |