The Fever Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
PC-GRN
1x $0.52
Resupply
1x $2.30
Sure Grip
1x $2.36
Blush Pour
2x $1.67
Shredded
1x $1.78
Rose Hex
2x $1.84
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.80
Rising Sun
6.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
6.0% $8.80
Control
6.0% $7.99
Max Win
$33.42 (+69.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.74 (-10.1%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+49.3%
Cost
$19.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.74
Ask Price EV $17.74 (-10.1%)
Bid Price EV $17.11 (-13.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.00 (-10.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.63 (-13.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.63 (+3.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.63
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+69.3%)
Worst Case $4.02 (-79.6%)
Volatility +49.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$13.68
Avg Loss -$6.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.02 (-79.6%)
Std Dev $9.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 150h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 48S //TOTAL COST $19.74 //ASK PRICE EV $17.74 //BID PRICE EV $17.11 //ASK PROFIT $-2.00 (-10.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.63 (-13.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +49.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$33.42
+$13.68
+69.3%
$31.48
+$11.74
+59.5%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$2.76
-14.0%
$16.48
-$3.26
-16.5%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.80
-$2.94
-14.9%
$16.69
-$3.05
-15.5%
$0.11
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.18
-$10.56
-53.5%
$8.80
-$10.94
-55.4%
$0.38
4.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.80
-$10.94
-55.4%
$8.74
-$11.00
-55.7%
$0.06
0.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.99
-$11.75
-59.5%
$7.97
-$11.77
-59.6%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.31
-$15.43
-78.1%
$4.30
-$15.44
-78.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.02
-$15.72
-79.6%
$3.88
-$15.86
-80.3%
$0.14
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05241749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0468263,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.7985,
"optimistic_value": 16.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.102882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.03983729999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.02,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055841760549999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.9935,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:55.343395Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:17.054530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06643386960999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.798,
"optimistic_value": 8.77,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:25.778561Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048922999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:26.653551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_65abfcdb096876811d4879e0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753387758080125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:34.294947Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:29.225117Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997822481944714",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:50.358530Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:33.115956Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850543432080552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:48.840177Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "526501640650586777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "526501587737363489",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "497228243054789885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:44.518019Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.55 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.63 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.42 Tosai 6.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 | $15.94 +201.4% | $6.86 +29.7% | 70.0% | +95.4% | $5.29 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.80 Tosai 6.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 6.0% $1.80 | $33.42 +144.5% | $16.49 +20.6% | 70.0% | +72.5% | $13.67 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.65 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.42 Tosai 10.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 | $15.94 +314.1% | $5.18 +34.5% | 50.0% | +128.5% | $3.85 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.42 Tosai 8.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 | $15.94 +249.6% | $6.01 +31.9% | 60.0% | +110.6% | $4.56 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Serpent Strike 4.0% $1.42 Tosai 4.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 4.0% $0.79 | $15.94 +163.5% | $7.69 +27.0% | 53.3% | +82.3% | $6.05 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.63 Serpent Strike 2.0% $1.42 Tosai 2.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 2.0% $0.79 | $15.94 +132.7% | $8.52 +24.3% | 30.0% | +70.8% | $6.85 | — |