The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Tiger Tear
1x $0.07
Marsh
2x $0.07
Leafhopper
2x $0.08
Basket Halftone
3x $0.06
Steel Work
1x $0.07
Grey Ghost
1x $0.13
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
10.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
10.0% $1.82
Coral Bloom
8.3% $1.36
Red Tide
8.3% $1.04
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $1.01
Blush Pour
8.3% $0.95
Max Win
$4.61 (+385.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.26 (+32.7%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+125.7%
Cost
$0.95
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.95
Ask Price EV $1.26 (+32.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.11 (+16.6%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+32.7%)
Bid Profit $0.16 (+16.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+16.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $4.61 (+385.3%)
Worst Case $0.38 (-60.3%)
Volatility +125.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$0.94
Avg Loss -$0.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.38 (-60.3%)
Std Dev $1.19
Avg Norm Float 0.1975
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 116h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 48S //TOTAL COST $0.95 //ASK PRICE EV $1.26 //BID PRICE EV $1.11 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+32.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+16.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +125.7% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.61
+$3.66
+385.3%
$3.81
+$2.86
+301.1%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$1.82
+$0.87
+91.7%
$1.70
+$0.75
+78.9%
$0.12
6.6%
—
WIN
8.3%
$1.36
+$0.41
+42.7%
$1.15
+$0.20
+21.1%
$0.21
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
8.3%
$1.04
+$0.09
+9.8%
$1.01
+$0.06
+6.3%
$0.03
3.2%
—
PAPER WIN
8.3%
$1.01
+$0.05
+5.8%
$0.89
-$0.06
-6.3%
$0.11
11.4%
—
PAPER WIN
8.3%
$0.95
+$0.00
+0.4%
$0.82
-$0.13
-13.7%
$0.13
14.0%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.82
-$0.13
-13.7%
$0.74
-$0.21
-22.1%
$0.08
9.8%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.75
-$0.20
-21.3%
$0.70
-$0.25
-26.3%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.45
-$0.50
-52.9%
$0.41
-$0.54
-56.8%
$0.04
8.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.41
-$0.54
-56.8%
$0.38
-$0.57
-60.0%
$0.03
7.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.38
-$0.57
-60.3%
$0.35
-$0.60
-63.2%
$0.03
7.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1481325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1343068,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4475,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:15.022042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11850599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:54.653511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1086305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11850599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.3775,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:57.311353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09914231710999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14871337691,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.098755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.748,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:13.171681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11850599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.82,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:40.529900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1481325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:29.554432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13399690680999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_62c6ff2cf03efa31b15b9d71",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "497228190140829245",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:04.630469Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:29.514443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:29.514443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:14.808804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:52.504292Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503982792732398611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:54.076960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:28.338430Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:03.513111Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.24 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.84 Shredded 8.3% $1.78 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 | $4.61 +182.8% | $1.95 +19.9% | 45.0% | +62.1% | $1.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 3.3% $1.36 Red Tide 3.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 3.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 3.3% $0.95 | $4.61 +334.9% | $1.42 +34.4% | 35.3% | +121.8% | $1.06 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 Red Tide 5.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 5.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +352.0% | $1.37 +34.2% | 38.0% | +120.9% | $1.02 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 Red Tide 6.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 6.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +361.0% | $1.32 +31.9% | 44.0% | +116.2% | $1.00 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 1.7% $1.36 Red Tide 1.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 1.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 1.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +308.0% | $1.48 +31.4% | 37.7% | +118.4% | $1.13 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +390.4% | $1.21 +28.6% | 56.0% | +104.8% | $0.94 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +406.6% | $1.15 +26.5% | 58.7% | +95.7% | $0.91 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Red Tide 13.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 13.3% $0.94 | $4.61 +423.9% | $1.09 +23.8% | 61.3% | +82.8% | $0.88 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint  26.7% $7.23 Bleeding Edge  26.7% $5.59 Sheet Lightning  10.0% $5.24 Glockingbird  10.0% $3.61 | $15.94 +140.1% | $8.55 +28.8% | 53.3% | +68.9% | $6.64 | — |