The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Polished Malachite
2x $0.29
Garter-9
1x $0.53
Mustard Gas
1x $0.80
Marsh
1x $1.19
Steel Work
2x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
10.0% $10.66
Coral Bloom
8.3% $4.96
Tropical Breeze
10.0% $3.67
Red Tide
8.3% $3.31
Blush Pour
8.3% $2.56
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $2.23
Max Win
$10.66 (+115.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.29 (-33.4%)
Win %
18.3%
Volatility
+53.9%
Cost
$4.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.94
Ask Price EV $3.29 (-33.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.10 (-37.2%)
Ask Profit $-1.65 (-33.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.84 (-37.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.65
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.84
Risk
Win Probability 18.3%
Loss Probability 81.7%
Best Case $10.66 (+115.8%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-69.0%)
Volatility +53.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 81.7%
Avg Win +$3.13
Avg Loss -$2.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-69.0%)
Std Dev $2.66
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 117h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 44S //TOTAL COST $4.94 //ASK PRICE EV $3.29 //BID PRICE EV $3.10 //ASK PROFIT $-1.65 (-33.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.84 (-37.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 18.3% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +53.9% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$10.66
+$5.72
+115.8%
$9.81
+$4.87
+98.6%
$0.85
8.0%
—
PAPER WIN
8.3%
$4.96
+$0.02
+0.4%
$4.92
-$0.02
-0.4%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.67
-$1.27
-25.7%
$3.64
-$1.30
-26.3%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$3.31
-$1.63
-33.0%
$3.28
-$1.66
-33.6%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.56
-$2.38
-48.1%
$2.09
-$2.85
-57.7%
$0.47
18.5%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.23
-$2.71
-54.9%
$2.14
-$2.80
-56.7%
$0.09
3.9%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.84
-$3.10
-62.8%
$1.74
-$3.20
-64.8%
$0.10
5.4%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.78
-$3.16
-63.9%
$1.77
-$3.17
-64.2%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.57
-$3.37
-68.2%
$1.28
-$3.66
-74.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.56
-$3.38
-68.4%
$1.50
-$3.44
-69.6%
$0.06
3.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.53
-$3.41
-69.0%
$1.52
-$3.42
-69.2%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0523725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0474844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:29.111274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0384065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:31.687833Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03505193663,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:02.101632Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05257787003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.034915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.84,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:50.340812Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:01.907585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0523725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.3104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:08.526043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04737483673,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:28.676960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_62c6ff2cf03efa31b15b9d71",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033138262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.650964Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "520872088106929236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.650964Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "502857689862568636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:11.456871Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.235613Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:13.242596Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:11.103299Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:55.531990Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "502857689862568384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:59:21.404803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:13.729171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627322007356368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:24.508588Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $10.66 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Red Tide 8.3% $3.31 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.56 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.23 | $10.66 +294.8% | $3.29 +21.9% | 36.7% | +89.3% | $2.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 1.7% $1.36 Red Tide 1.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 1.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 1.7% $0.94 | $4.61 +319.1% | $1.48 +34.3% | 37.7% | +121.9% | $1.10 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.94 | $4.61 +401.1% | $1.20 +30.4% | 56.0% | +107.4% | $0.92 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.94 | $4.61 +412.2% | $1.15 +27.3% | 58.7% | +96.9% | $0.90 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Red Tide 13.3% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 13.3% $0.94 | $4.61 +429.9% | $1.09 +25.0% | 61.3% | +83.8% | $0.87 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint  23.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge  23.3% $5.91 Sheet Lightning  15.0% $5.30 Glockingbird  15.0% $3.61 | $15.94 +158.0% | $8.01 +29.6% | 46.7% | +72.5% | $6.18 | — |