The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Destroyer
2x $0.14
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.24
Crazy 8
8.0% $0.71
Vent Rush
8.0% $0.70
Dragon Tech
8.0% $0.70
Flora Carnivora
8.0% $0.69
Max Win
$5.85 (+137.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+10.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+87.6%
Cost
$2.46
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.46
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+10.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.36 (-4.0%)
Ask Profit $0.25 (+10.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.10 (-4.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+14.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+137.8%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-72.7%)
Volatility +87.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.39
Avg Loss -$1.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-72.7%)
Std Dev $2.16
Avg Norm Float 0.4425
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 141h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 55S //TOTAL COST $2.46 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.36 //ASK PROFIT $0.25 (+10.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.10 (-4.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +87.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.85
+$3.39
+137.8%
$4.91
+$2.45
+99.6%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.24
-$0.22
-9.0%
$2.14
-$0.32
-13.0%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$1.75
-71.0%
$0.57
-$1.89
-76.8%
$0.14
20.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$1.76
-71.4%
$0.61
-$1.85
-75.2%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$1.76
-71.5%
$0.62
-$1.84
-74.8%
$0.08
11.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$1.77
-72.0%
$0.66
-$1.80
-73.2%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$1.79
-72.7%
$0.61
-$1.85
-75.2%
$0.06
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33189,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.309764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:32.198260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44252,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:29.393112Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.287638,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:43.326959Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.309764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44252,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:39:07.418782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.309764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:33.447440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5e9a98425d8e08bf6919a367",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "529879287550866924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:24.026327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:23.786196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525374890937807815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:23.786196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:24.026327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:44.720257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "502857689861492308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.18 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.43 +23.1% | 60.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.83 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.20 Downtown 8.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +132.1% | $13.77 +18.7% | 60.0% | +80.2% | $11.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.52 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.21 Downtown 4.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +116.7% | $6.91 +22.3% | 40.0% | +77.4% | $5.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.18 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.69 +22.2% | 50.0% | +115.1% | $3.84 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +141.0% | $6.17 +21.4% | 35.0% | +88.3% | $5.08 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.21 Downtown 12.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +274.5% | $3.96 +21.1% | 40.0% | +129.0% | $3.27 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.52 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.21 Downtown 2.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 2.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +93.8% | $7.65 +21.0% | 45.0% | +65.9% | $6.32 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.21 Downtown 14.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 14.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +342.1% | $3.23 +16.5% | 30.0% | +140.0% | $2.77 | — |