The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Poly Mag
1x $0.15
Roadblock
2x $0.29
Destroyer
1x $0.31
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
Aeolian Light
3x $0.38
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.57
Dragon Tech
8.0% $1.25
Vent Rush
8.0% $1.12
Downtown
8.0% $1.10
Flora Carnivora
8.0% $0.77
Max Win
$12.25 (+191.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.44 (+29.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+111.8%
Cost
$4.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.20
Ask Price EV $5.44 (+29.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.01 (+19.2%)
Ask Profit $1.24 (+29.5%)
Bid Profit $0.81 (+19.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.43 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+191.5%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-82.9%)
Volatility +111.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.21
Avg Loss -$3.21
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-82.9%)
Std Dev $4.70
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 18S //TOTAL COST $4.20 //ASK PRICE EV $5.44 //BID PRICE EV $5.01 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+29.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.81 (+19.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +111.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.25
+$8.05
+191.5%
$11.36
+$7.16
+170.5%
$0.89
7.2%
—
PAPER WIN
30.0%
$4.57
+$0.37
+8.8%
$4.10
-$0.10
-2.4%
$0.47
10.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.25
-$2.95
-70.2%
$1.12
-$3.08
-73.3%
$0.13
10.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.12
-$3.08
-73.2%
$1.08
-$3.12
-74.3%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.10
-$3.10
-73.8%
$1.03
-$3.17
-75.5%
$0.07
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$3.43
-81.7%
$0.69
-$3.51
-83.6%
$0.08
10.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.72
-$3.48
-82.9%
$0.70
-$3.50
-83.3%
$0.02
2.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1495125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.139545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.567500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.48,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:10.078503Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:04.838811Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1295775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.1,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:52.545340Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.139545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.124,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:41.292909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.717,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:35.397194Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.139545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.2525,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:19.708316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5e9a98425d8e08bf6919a367",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:56:03.076000Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "492724538183456433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:03.729744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "493850438107634608",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:03.295482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:03.729744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.323927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141160121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:06.384691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590626126853",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:06.017464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313651836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:40.970736Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.20 Downtown 8.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +124.6% | $13.89 +15.9% | 60.0% | +77.6% | $11.99 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 8.0% $0.70 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $0.69 Dragon Tech 8.0% $0.65 | $5.85 +150.0% | $2.69 +15.0% | 30.0% | +89.1% | $2.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.12 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +249.9% | $4.70 +34.3% | 50.0% | +126.4% | $3.50 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.12 Downtown 4.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +133.2% | $6.93 +32.0% | 40.0% | +83.1% | $5.25 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.57 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.12 Downtown 12.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 12.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +304.1% | $3.96 +30.6% | 40.0% | +139.5% | $3.03 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +153.5% | $6.19 +28.1% | 35.0% | +92.7% | $4.83 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.57 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.12 Downtown 2.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +96.9% | $7.66 +23.2% | 45.0% | +66.8% | $6.22 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.57 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 14.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +367.4% | $3.22 +23.1% | 30.0% | +148.2% | $2.62 | — |