The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Iron Clad
1x $1.12
Motorized
1x $0.32
Slag
2x $0.38
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Dezastre
3x $0.61
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Reboot
2.0% $31.83
Aristocrat
2.0% $15.36
Limelight
2.0% $14.43
Phobos
2.0% $13.56
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Chopper
2.0% $9.68
Max Win
$31.83 (+215.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.49 (-6.0%)
Win %
26.0%
Volatility
+43.8%
Cost
$10.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.09
Ask Price EV $9.49 (-6.0%)
Bid Price EV $8.51 (-15.6%)
Ask Profit $-0.60 (-6.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.58 (-15.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.98 (+9.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.60
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.58
Risk
Win Probability 26.0%
Loss Probability 74.0%
Best Case $31.83 (+215.5%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-59.1%)
Volatility +43.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$4.73
Avg Loss -$2.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-59.1%)
Std Dev $4.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 153h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 23S //TOTAL COST $10.09 //ASK PRICE EV $9.49 //BID PRICE EV $8.51 //ASK PROFIT $-0.60 (-6.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.58 (-15.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.0% //BEST CASE $31.83 //VOLATILITY +43.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$31.83
+$21.74
+215.5%
$29.96
+$19.87
+196.9%
$1.87
5.9%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$15.36
+$5.27
+52.2%
$12.39
+$2.30
+22.8%
$2.97
19.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$14.43
+$4.34
+43.0%
$11.73
+$1.64
+16.3%
$2.70
18.7%
—
WIN
2.0%
$13.56
+$3.47
+34.4%
$13.45
+$3.36
+33.3%
$0.11
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.97
+29.4%
$12.03
+$1.94
+19.2%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$9.68
-$0.41
-4.0%
$8.60
-$1.49
-14.8%
$1.08
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.31
-$0.78
-7.7%
$7.84
-$2.25
-22.3%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.19
-11.8%
$7.77
-$2.32
-23.0%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.20
-21.8%
$7.43
-$2.66
-26.4%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.13
-$5.96
-59.1%
$3.76
-$6.33
-62.7%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:09.190119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04702453125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:05.365814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0433140114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:48.352551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0461934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 15.3565,
"optimistic_value": 15.29,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 12.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:57.675711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.027996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 13.556,
"optimistic_value": 13.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 13.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:37:58.702451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 9.683499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 9.54,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 8.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:09:43.691290Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 31.831,
"optimistic_value": 29.99,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 29.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:18.254098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 14.4305,
"optimistic_value": 14,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 11.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:55.225731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5d86fdbf286f5fecd6d18fae",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "506235442368036996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:50.430098Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "494976443342801634",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:23.145580Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:08.841915Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:12.161981Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:22.203933Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "523123940969601754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:19:51.977505Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "509613142168459839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:19:51.977505Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 2.0% $13.56 Reboot 2.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 2.0% $6.48 Chopper 2.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +315.8% | $3.73 +14.3% | 64.0% | +50.2% | $3.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 4.0% $13.56 Reboot 4.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 4.0% $6.48 Chopper 4.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.46 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +284.0% | $4.15 +17.4% | 52.0% | +60.2% | $3.53 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 6.0% $13.56 Reboot 6.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 6.0% $6.48 Chopper 6.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +247.6% | $4.57 +17.2% | 58.0% | +62.6% | $3.90 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 8.0% $13.56 Reboot 8.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 8.0% $6.48 Chopper 8.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +217.5% | $4.98 +16.7% | 44.0% | +62.4% | $4.27 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 10.0% $13.56 Reboot 10.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 10.0% $6.48 Chopper 10.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +184.8% | $5.40 +13.5% | 40.0% | +59.1% | $4.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Desolate Space  13.3% $71.39 Bloodsport  13.3% $53.46 Black Lotus  20.0% $37.06 Imperial Dragon  13.3% $27.67 Jawbreaker  20.0% $26.33 Olympus  20.0% $14.33 | $71.39 +126.5% | $35.88 +13.8% | 46.7% | +57.6% | $31.52 | — |