The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6

Classified → Covert FN ST 10 items

Factory New +3.2%Minimal Wear +34.4%

Contract

Classified → Covert Factory New StatTrak™

Inputs

Shapewood

4x $20.21

Wicked Sick

3x $18.99

Wild Child

3x $34.07

↓

Possible Outputs

Royal Paladin

20.0% $696.64

Fade

20.0% $318.51

Temukau

30.0% $288.76

Head Shot

30.0% $191.11

Max Win

$696.64 (+107.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$346.99 (+3.2%)

Win %

20.0%

Volatility

+54.0%

Cost

$336.16

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $336.16

Ask Price EV $346.99 (+3.2%)

Bid Price EV $235.24 (-30.0%)

Ask Profit $10.83 (+3.2%)

Bid Profit $-100.92 (-30.0%)

Liquidity Gap $111.75 (+33.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$10.83

Bid Slippage Buffer -$100.92

Risk

Win Probability 20.0%

Loss Probability 80.0%

Best Case $696.64 (+107.2%)

Worst Case $191.11 (-43.1%)

Volatility +54.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$360.48

Avg Loss -$76.58

Bottom 5% Outcome $191.11 (-43.1%)

Std Dev $181.44

Avg Norm Float 0.0697

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 12m

Oldest Output Price 142h 22m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$20.21 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$21.18 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$26.07 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$28.75 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Minimal Wear

$18.99 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$34.07 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$40.02 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Factory New

$46.88 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Factory New

$47.00 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$52.99 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 26S //TOTAL COST $336.16 //ASK PRICE EV $346.99 //BID PRICE EV $235.24 //ASK PROFIT $10.83 (+3.2%) //BID PROFIT $-100.92 (-30.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $696.64 //VOLATILITY +54.0% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.06971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1f95db2031e4",
      "realistic_value": 191.11450000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 186.33,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Head Shot",
      "conservative_value": 145.89,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:08.692079Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f95db2031e4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.055768,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1aba3ea9ecc5",
      "realistic_value": 288.75649999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 270.28,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Temukau",
      "conservative_value": 256.42,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:32.925345Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1aba3ea9ecc5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.055768,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
      "realistic_value": 696.6374999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 557.31,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
      "conservative_value": 395.34,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:35:59.515866Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.027884,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
      "realistic_value": 318.5125,
      "optimistic_value": 254.81,
      "output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 177.41,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:28:16.437303Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_59e64ee9d7ebca329255f7d3",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 20.21,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "783200338039312163",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 21.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "636836442316788129",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 26.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "764053623326636136",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 28.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "507359315990892427",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 18.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "512990736599406455",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:46.503193Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 34.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "506234592349966728",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:59.384096Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 40.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "628955776951798832",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:59.384096Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 46.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "499479193112062477",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:03.798927Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 47,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "516368322941506682",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:03.798927Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 52.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "498353293083594931",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:59.384096Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:4+collection-set-community-32:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST	Fade 20.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 20.0% $173.55 Temukau 30.0% $126.64 Head Shot 30.0% $70.95	$318.51 +171.6%	$157.69 +34.4%	70.0%	+75.2%	$117.29	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 10.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 10.0% $173.55 Temukau 40.0% $126.64 Head Shot 40.0% $46.53	$318.51 +257.0%	$118.48 +32.8%	60.0%	+89.7%	$89.21	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST	Power Loader 5.0% $20.64 Avalanche 5.0% $17.49 Retrobution 5.0% $9.43 Teclu Burner 5.0% $8.17 Fuel Rod 5.0% $6.33 Tiger Moth 5.0% $5.80	$20.64 +375.5%	$5.19 +19.6%	30.0%	+105.4%	$4.34	—