The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.17
Hideout
2x $0.19
Motorized
1x $0.19
Slag
1x $0.19
Light Box
3x $0.21
Sure Grip
1x $0.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Serpent Strike
4.0% $4.41
Block-18
16.0% $4.19
Etch Lord
16.0% $2.40
Analog Input
16.0% $1.90
Just Smile
16.0% $1.56
Hybrid
16.0% $1.47
Max Win
$4.41 (+128.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.22 (+14.8%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+55.7%
Cost
$1.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.93
Ask Price EV $2.22 (+14.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.02 (+4.7%)
Ask Profit $0.29 (+14.8%)
Bid Profit $0.09 (+4.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+10.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.09
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $4.41 (+128.5%)
Worst Case $1.13 (-41.4%)
Volatility +55.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.0%
Avg Win +$1.49
Avg Loss -$0.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.16 (-39.9%)
Std Dev $1.07
Avg Norm Float 0.2157
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 154h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 53S //TOTAL COST $1.93 //ASK PRICE EV $2.22 //BID PRICE EV $2.02 //ASK PROFIT $0.29 (+14.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.09 (+4.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $4.41 //VOLATILITY +55.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
4.0%
$4.41
+$2.48
+128.5%
$3.69
+$1.76
+91.2%
$0.72
16.3%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$4.19
+$2.26
+117.1%
$3.88
+$1.95
+101.0%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN
16.0%
$2.40
+$0.47
+24.3%
$2.07
+$0.14
+7.3%
$0.33
13.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.90
-$0.03
-1.3%
$1.85
-$0.08
-4.1%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.56
-$0.37
-19.2%
$1.43
-$0.50
-25.9%
$0.13
8.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.47
-$0.46
-23.8%
$1.39
-$0.54
-28.0%
$0.08
5.4%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$1.44
-$0.49
-25.4%
$1.17
-$0.76
-39.4%
$0.27
18.8%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$1.17
-$0.76
-39.5%
$1.07
-$0.86
-44.6%
$0.10
8.3%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$1.16
-$0.77
-39.9%
$1.01
-$0.92
-47.7%
$0.15
13.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.13
-$0.80
-41.4%
$1.09
-$0.84
-43.5%
$0.04
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:39.969537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14495703125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.399,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:53.160842Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.133519045,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.770098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.12297749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.41,
"optimistic_value": 4.41,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:12.672103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.17238317125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.1604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:25.809297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.21575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:33:49.222102Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.20508094675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.1315,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:21.847450Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.151025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.1669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:41.008326Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_488333d1491e404896020c37",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "519746241189696524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:01.076812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "507360492276906205",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "506235389470544232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:15.015566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:48.281236Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "518620341243621604",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:28.768624Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "500605942756425671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:32.688921Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-community-35:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.11 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +63.7% | $3.26 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.1% | $2.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.06 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +64.8% | $3.23 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.19 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +61.9% | $3.29 +19.5% | 60.0% | +23.7% | $2.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.07 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.6% | $3.20 +18.2% | 60.0% | +24.3% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.06 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.0% | $3.18 +16.9% | 60.0% | +24.2% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +130.9% | $2.20 +15.4% | 40.0% | +51.2% | $1.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.37 Analog Input 6.0% $1.90 Just Smile 6.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.19 +12.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $1.94 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.53 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.22 | $23.51 +95.1% | $14.30 +18.7% | 66.7% | +42.6% | $12.05 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +61.5% | $100.58 +19.8% | 50.0% | +37.4% | $83.96 | — |