The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
2x $0.38
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Dezastre
2x $0.61
Sure Grip
1x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
16.0% $13.06
Rising Sun
4.0% $12.94
Control
4.0% $10.05
Wave Breaker
4.0% $9.41
Just Smile
16.0% $9.31
Block-18
16.0% $8.90
Max Win
$13.06 (+37.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.80 (-7.5%)
Win %
24.0%
Volatility
+29.1%
Cost
$9.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.52
Ask Price EV $8.80 (-7.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.92 (-16.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.72 (-7.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.60 (-16.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.89 (+9.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 24.0%
Loss Probability 76.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+37.2%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-56.7%)
Volatility +29.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$3.02
Avg Loss -$1.90
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-56.7%)
Std Dev $2.77
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 136h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 54S //TOTAL COST $9.52 //ASK PRICE EV $8.80 //BID PRICE EV $7.92 //ASK PROFIT $-0.72 (-7.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.60 (-16.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 24.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +29.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.06
+$3.54
+37.2%
$12.03
+$2.51
+26.4%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$12.94
+$3.42
+35.9%
$11.82
+$2.30
+24.2%
$1.12
8.6%
—
PAPER WIN
4.0%
$10.05
+$0.53
+5.6%
$8.52
-$1.00
-10.5%
$1.53
15.2%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$9.41
-$0.11
-1.2%
$8.98
-$0.54
-5.7%
$0.43
4.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.31
-$0.21
-2.2%
$7.84
-$1.68
-17.6%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$8.90
-$0.62
-6.5%
$7.77
-$1.75
-18.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$8.70
-$0.82
-8.6%
$7.63
-$1.89
-19.9%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$7.89
-$1.63
-17.1%
$7.43
-$2.09
-22.0%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$5.82
-$3.70
-38.9%
$5.63
-$3.89
-40.9%
$0.19
3.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.13
-$5.39
-56.7%
$3.76
-$5.76
-60.5%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.746840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04694390625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:54.948744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0432397482,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.384975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0398259,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055825780650000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 12.938,
"optimistic_value": 12.49,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:19.304803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06641485863,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 9.408,
"optimistic_value": 9.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:12.966901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:37.206000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_488333d1491e404896020c37",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:41.601363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.424064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:02.839695Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "505109437007420156",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:29.736815Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "509613142168459839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:27.041364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:28.316634Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:47.077457Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-community-35:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.11 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +63.7% | $3.26 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.1% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 16.0% $2.40 Analog Input 16.0% $1.90 Just Smile 16.0% $1.56 Hybrid 16.0% $1.47 | $4.41 +128.5% | $2.22 +14.8% | 36.0% | +51.7% | $1.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.06 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +64.8% | $3.23 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.19 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +61.9% | $3.29 +19.5% | 60.0% | +23.7% | $2.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.07 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.6% | $3.20 +18.2% | 60.0% | +24.3% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.06 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.0% | $3.18 +16.9% | 60.0% | +24.2% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +130.9% | $2.20 +15.4% | 40.0% | +51.2% | $1.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.37 Analog Input 6.0% $1.90 Just Smile 6.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.19 +12.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $1.94 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.53 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.22 | $23.51 +95.1% | $14.30 +18.7% | 66.7% | +42.6% | $12.05 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +61.5% | $100.58 +19.8% | 50.0% | +37.4% | $83.96 | — |