The Ascent Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
Electric Blue
1x $0.19
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.36
Banana Leaf
1x $0.17
Picnic
3x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
15.0% $6.21
Yeti Camo
8.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
15.0% $3.50
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+144.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.36 (+32.4%)
Win %
62.0%
Volatility
+53.8%
Cost
$2.54
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.54
Ask Price EV $3.36 (+32.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.32 (+30.6%)
Ask Profit $0.82 (+32.4%)
Bid Profit $0.78 (+30.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.82
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.78
Risk
Win Probability 62.0%
Loss Probability 38.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+144.5%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-12.0%)
Volatility +53.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.50
Avg Loss -$0.29
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-12.0%)
Std Dev $1.37
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 7h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 52S //TOTAL COST $2.54 //ASK PRICE EV $3.36 //BID PRICE EV $3.32 //ASK PROFIT $0.82 (+32.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.78 (+30.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +53.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$6.21
+$3.67
+144.5%
$6.18
+$3.64
+143.3%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$4.46
+$1.92
+75.6%
$4.43
+$1.89
+74.4%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$3.50
+$0.96
+37.9%
$3.45
+$0.91
+35.8%
$0.05
1.5%
—
WIN
8.0%
$3.37
+$0.83
+32.8%
$3.34
+$0.80
+31.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
SMALL WIN
8.0%
$2.66
+$0.12
+4.6%
$2.64
+$0.10
+3.9%
$0.02
0.6%
—
SMALL WIN
8.0%
$2.64
+$0.10
+3.9%
$2.62
+$0.08
+3.1%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.27
-$0.27
-10.6%
$2.25
-$0.29
-11.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$2.24
-$0.30
-11.8%
$2.23
-$0.31
-12.2%
$0.01
0.4%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$2.23
-$0.31
-12.0%
$1.99
-$0.55
-21.7%
$0.24
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0649675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5035,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.065967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:50.446042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0649675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.059969999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_48760a765c1317e998ac3923",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.676402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:47.362653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "517494388633292314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:16.307954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "496102290328809707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:59.942007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729018177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:49.144253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:49.144253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "516368488725215330",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:42.999968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "529879235107884672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:42.999968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "505109489448518132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 22.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 2.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 22.5% $3.50 Mint Fan 2.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 2.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 2.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +128.3% | $3.53 +29.7% | 49.0% | +47.5% | $2.72 | — |