The Ascent Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.40
Picnic
5x $0.40
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
15.0% $6.21
Yeti Camo
8.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
15.0% $3.50
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+16.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.36 (-36.8%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+25.7%
Cost
$5.32
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.32
Ask Price EV $3.36 (-36.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.32 (-37.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.96 (-36.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.00 (-37.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.00
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+16.7%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-58.0%)
Volatility +25.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 77.0%
Avg Win +$0.89
Avg Loss -$2.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-58.0%)
Std Dev $1.37
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 8h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 28S //TOTAL COST $5.32 //ASK PRICE EV $3.36 //BID PRICE EV $3.32 //ASK PROFIT $-1.96 (-36.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.00 (-37.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +25.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
15.0%
$6.21
+$0.89
+16.7%
$6.18
+$0.86
+16.2%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.46
-$0.86
-16.1%
$4.43
-$0.89
-16.7%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$3.50
-$1.82
-34.3%
$3.45
-$1.87
-35.2%
$0.05
1.3%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$3.37
-$1.95
-36.6%
$3.34
-$1.98
-37.2%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.66
-$2.66
-50.1%
$2.64
-$2.68
-50.4%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.64
-$2.68
-50.4%
$2.62
-$2.70
-50.8%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.27
-$3.05
-57.3%
$2.25
-$3.07
-57.7%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.24
-$3.08
-57.9%
$2.23
-$3.09
-58.1%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.23
-$3.09
-58.0%
$2.00
-$3.32
-62.4%
$0.23
10.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.497,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:48.355690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.046173599999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:46.119498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:01.169143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:10.129895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:25.333240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:02.360516Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_48760a765c1317e998ac3923",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109437007351828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:17.134815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181071325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:17.134815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:22.436741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:17.134815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "529879287551165328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884289967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:07.742284Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 15.0% $6.21 Yeti Camo 8.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 15.0% $3.50 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +137.0% | $3.36 +28.3% | 62.0% | +45.1% | $2.62 | — |