The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Orange Peel
1x $0.31
VariCamo
1x $0.69
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
4x $0.38
Rose Nacre
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
6.7% $9.44
Damascus Steel
6.7% $4.76
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.23
VariCamo
6.7% $2.89
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Max Win
$9.44 (+71.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.54 (-35.6%)
Win %
6.7%
Volatility
+32.6%
Cost
$5.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.50
Ask Price EV $3.54 (-35.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.48 (-36.7%)
Ask Profit $-1.96 (-35.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.02 (-36.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.02
Risk
Win Probability 6.7%
Loss Probability 93.3%
Best Case $9.44 (+71.7%)
Worst Case $2.05 (-62.7%)
Volatility +32.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.7%
Avg Win +$3.94
Avg Loss -$2.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.05 (-62.7%)
Std Dev $1.79
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 149h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 45S //TOTAL COST $5.50 //ASK PRICE EV $3.54 //BID PRICE EV $3.48 //ASK PROFIT $-1.96 (-35.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.02 (-36.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.7% //BEST CASE $9.44 //VOLATILITY +32.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$9.44
+$3.94
+71.7%
$9.40
+$3.90
+70.9%
$0.04
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$4.76
-$0.74
-13.5%
$4.63
-$0.87
-15.8%
$0.13
2.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.46
-$1.04
-18.9%
$4.43
-$1.07
-19.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.23
-$2.27
-41.2%
$3.05
-$2.45
-44.5%
$0.18
5.7%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.89
-$2.61
-47.5%
$2.88
-$2.62
-47.6%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$2.86
-51.9%
$2.62
-$2.88
-52.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$2.86
-52.0%
$2.62
-$2.88
-52.4%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.05
-$3.45
-62.7%
$1.99
-$3.51
-63.8%
$0.06
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.234,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:48:03.982638Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0453765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:57.960559Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:09.950617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:57.814350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 2.89,
"optimistic_value": 2.89,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:54.503860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 9.4435,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:23.051966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 4.757,
"optimistic_value": 4.68,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 4.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:19.638731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_485783b003a6d4011e549f9d",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "511864888985836161",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:20.657561Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "512990841908135087",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:44.852124Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:40.150983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:40.150983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:14.922777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:51.761074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:51.761074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:51.761074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "518620288314800704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:30.026644Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "491598524989808054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:51.761074Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.23 VariCamo 6.7% $2.89 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.72 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 | $3.23 +94.8% | $2.01 +21.3% | 70.7% | +42.1% | $1.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.23 VariCamo 10.0% $2.89 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.09 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.69 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 | $3.23 +104.7% | $1.94 +22.9% | 66.0% | +44.5% | $1.58 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.28 VariCamo 16.7% $2.89 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.09 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.79 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.14 | $3.28 +118.5% | $1.81 +20.9% | 56.7% | +48.6% | $1.50 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.57 Amber Fade  10.0% $5.51 | $38.92 +95.7% | $24.17 +21.5% | 45.0% | +68.1% | $19.89 | — |