The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wurst Hölle

4x $1.16
Royal Baroque

1x $1.44
Yeti Camo

1x $1.91
Reef Grief

2x $2.19
Mint Fan

2x $3.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate

30.0% $38.92
Eye of Zapems

13.3% $27.34
Sweet Little Angels

13.3% $25.66
Monster Melt

13.3% $20.06
Royal Guard

30.0% $13.23
Max Win
$38.92 (+77.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.39 (+15.6%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+46.3%
Cost
$21.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.96
Ask Price EV $25.39 (+15.6%)
Bid Price EV $23.84 (+8.6%)
Ask Profit $3.43 (+15.6%)
Bid Profit $1.88 (+8.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.54 (+7.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.88
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $38.92 (+77.2%)
Worst Case $13.23 (-39.7%)
Volatility +46.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$11.12
Avg Loss -$6.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.23 (-39.7%)
Std Dev $10.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0823
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 105h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear

$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New

$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New

$3.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New

$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New

$4.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 40S //TOTAL COST $21.96 //ASK PRICE EV $25.39 //BID PRICE EV $23.84 //ASK PROFIT $3.43 (+15.6%) //BID PROFIT $1.88 (+8.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +46.3% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated

BIG WIN
30.0%
$38.92
+$16.96
+77.2%
$34.38
+$12.42
+56.6%
$4.54
11.7%
—

WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$27.34
+$5.38
+24.5%
$26.57
+$4.61
+21.0%
$0.77
2.8%
—

Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0674778
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
13.3%
$25.66
+$3.70
+16.9%
$25.62
+$3.66
+16.7%
$0.04
0.2%
—

LOSS
13.3%
$20.06
-$1.90
-8.7%
$19.85
-$2.11
-9.6%
$0.21
1.0%
—

LOSS
30.0%
$13.23
-$8.73
-39.7%
$13.08
-$8.88
-40.4%
$0.15
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0617175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.049374,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.2315,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:23.162668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0699465,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.3405,
"optimistic_value": 27.26,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:22.685829Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0674778,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0617175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.058,
"optimistic_value": 19.89,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:08.219163Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46f18a443367f6587be11eed",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "496102290329977223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "500605942755443555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "516368541588556442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "517494336190410286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:46.655825Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "524249840858909847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:42.442223Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "516368541588522710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
},
{
"price": 3.31,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "498354142900372711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
},
{
"price": 4.03,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "642467916641632601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 30.0% $1.20 | $6.94 +107.9% | $4.07 +21.9% | 70.0% | +66.7% | $3.34 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate ![]() 30.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems ![]() 13.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt ![]() 13.3% $8.45 Royal Guard ![]() 30.0% $5.56 | $18.08 +87.7% | $10.99 +14.1% | 56.7% | +51.8% | $9.63 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate ![]() 30.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems ![]() 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 13.3% $4.09 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 13.3% $4.05 Royal Guard ![]() 30.0% $1.20 | $6.93 +90.9% | $4.10 +13.0% | 70.0% | +61.2% | $3.63 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Midnight Laminate ![]() 30.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems ![]() 13.3% $27.34 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt ![]() 13.3% $20.06 Royal Guard ![]() 30.0% $13.23 | $38.92 +55.9% | $25.39 +1.7% | 56.7% | +40.8% | $24.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate ![]() 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt ![]() 3.3% $20.06 Royal Guard ![]() 45.0% $13.38 Eye of Zapems ![]() 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 3.3% $10.29 | $38.92 +93.4% | $24.90 +23.7% | 45.0% | +63.5% | $20.12 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 35.0% $1.22 | $6.94 +107.3% | $4.08 +21.7% | 65.0% | +71.6% | $3.35 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 40.0% $1.20 | $6.94 +106.7% | $4.07 +21.2% | 60.0% | +76.5% | $3.36 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate ![]() 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems ![]() 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt ![]() 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard ![]() 10.0% $5.56 | $18.08 +108.7% | $10.15 +17.2% | 63.3% | +35.0% | $8.66 | — |