The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +22.5%Factory New +3.4%Field-Tested +10.5%Minimal Wear +17.9%Well-Worn +12.7%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

1x $0.31

Metallic Squeezer

1x $0.39

Teal Graf

2x $0.40

Yeti Camo

3x $0.23

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.32

Mint Fan

1x $0.37

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

30.0% $6.94

Eye of Zapems

13.3% $4.33

Monster Melt

13.3% $3.97

Sweet Little Angels

13.3% $3.91

Royal Guard

30.0% $1.23

Max Win

$6.94 (+108.5%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.08 (+22.5%)

Win %

70.0%

Volatility

+66.6%

Cost

$3.33

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.33

Ask Price EV $4.08 (+22.5%)

Bid Price EV $3.50 (+5.2%)

Ask Profit $0.75 (+22.5%)

Bid Profit $0.17 (+5.2%)

Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+17.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.75

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.17

Risk

Win Probability 70.0%

Loss Probability 30.0%

Best Case $6.94 (+108.5%)

Worst Case $1.23 (-63.2%)

Volatility +66.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$1.97

Avg Loss -$2.11

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.23 (-63.2%)

Std Dev $2.22

Avg Norm Float 0.5181

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 17m

Oldest Output Price 152h 45m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 05S //TOTAL COST $3.33 //ASK PRICE EV $4.08 //BID PRICE EV $3.50 //ASK PROFIT $0.75 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.17 (+5.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +66.6% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.388575,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.31085999999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.225,
      "optimistic_value": 1.19,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:33.648775Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.44038499999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.424842,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 3.9145,
      "optimistic_value": 3.75,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 3.33,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:34.452388Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.388575,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 3.95,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_46f18a443367f6587be11eed",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "526501640650943609",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:48.291192Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "527627540538085628",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:20.095009Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "503983589619426907",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:11.919788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "491598638254867202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:11.919788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "520872141037862616",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724643507505009",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "518620341243236260",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.655768Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.655768Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "499480042828325809",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:58.897882Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt 13.3% $20.06 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.49	$38.92 +80.0%	$25.48 +17.9%	56.7%	+46.7%	$21.62	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $4.10 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $4.07 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23	$6.93 +89.9%	$4.11 +12.7%	70.0%	+60.6%	$3.65	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.45 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56	$18.08 +81.9%	$10.99 +10.5%	56.7%	+50.2%	$9.94	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt 13.3% $20.06 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.49	$38.92 +58.0%	$25.48 +3.4%	56.7%	+40.9%	$24.64	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt 3.3% $20.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.46 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $10.29	$38.92 +95.2%	$24.94 +25.1%	48.3%	+63.9%	$19.94	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$6.94 +107.3%	$4.08 +21.9%	60.0%	+76.3%	$3.35	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23	$6.94 +106.7%	$4.08 +21.5%	65.0%	+71.2%	$3.36	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 30.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 30.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 30.0% $8.45 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.47	$18.08 +112.7%	$9.94 +16.9%	65.0%	+26.6%	$8.50	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.47	$18.08 +108.3%	$10.14 +16.9%	63.3%	+35.1%	$8.68	—